Several 2026 gubernatorial contests feature open seats or narrowly balanced electorates, spreading trader consensus across states like Ohio, Wisconsin, Kansas, and Iowa as the likeliest to produce the smallest victory margins. Ohio’s term-limited incumbent and competitive candidate field contribute to its leading position, while Wisconsin’s incumbent dynamics, Kansas’s open Democratic seat, and Iowa’s economic pressures sustain tight positioning in those markets. Georgia, New Hampshire, and Nevada remain factors due to shifting voter trends and primary outcomes. With probabilities clustered below 20 percent for any single state, the market reflects uncertainty over final polling averages, turnout patterns, and late-cycle developments that could widen or narrow margins before November 3.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoOhio 18.4%
New Hampshire 14.0%
Wisconsin 12.6%
Kansas 12.2%
$11,682 Vol.
$11,682 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Ohio
18%
New Hampshire
9%
Wisconsin
13%
Kansas
12%
Iowa
12%
Texas
12%
Florida
11%
Alaska
10%
Georgia
9%
Nevada
7%
Michigan
5%
Vermont
4%
Oregon
3%
Minnesota
3%
Maine
2%
Colorado
2%
New Mexico
2%
Arizona
1%
Ohio 18.4%
New Hampshire 14.0%
Wisconsin 12.6%
Kansas 12.2%
$11,682 Vol.
$11,682 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Ohio
$423 Vol.
18%
New Hampshire
$272 Vol.
9%
Wisconsin
$970 Vol.
13%
Kansas
$2,109 Vol.
12%
Iowa
$1,480 Vol.
12%
Texas
$1,569 Vol.
12%
Florida
$224 Vol.
11%
Alaska
$207 Vol.
10%
Georgia
$297 Vol.
9%
Nevada
$2,034 Vol.
7%
Michigan
$329 Vol.
5%
Vermont
$176 Vol.
4%
Oregon
$319 Vol.
3%
Minnesota
$214 Vol.
3%
Maine
$355 Vol.
2%
Colorado
$243 Vol.
2%
New Mexico
$194 Vol.
2%
Arizona
$269 Vol.
1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 gubernatorial contests feature open seats or narrowly balanced electorates, spreading trader consensus across states like Ohio, Wisconsin, Kansas, and Iowa as the likeliest to produce the smallest victory margins. Ohio’s term-limited incumbent and competitive candidate field contribute to its leading position, while Wisconsin’s incumbent dynamics, Kansas’s open Democratic seat, and Iowa’s economic pressures sustain tight positioning in those markets. Georgia, New Hampshire, and Nevada remain factors due to shifting voter trends and primary outcomes. With probabilities clustered below 20 percent for any single state, the market reflects uncertainty over final polling averages, turnout patterns, and late-cycle developments that could widen or narrow margins before November 3.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volumen
$11,682Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 gubernatorial contests feature open seats or narrowly balanced electorates, spreading trader consensus across states like Ohio, Wisconsin, Kansas, and Iowa as the likeliest to produce the smallest victory margins. Ohio’s term-limited incumbent and competitive candidate field contribute to its leading position, while Wisconsin’s incumbent dynamics, Kansas’s open Democratic seat, and Iowa’s economic pressures sustain tight positioning in those markets. Georgia, New Hampshire, and Nevada remain factors due to shifting voter trends and primary outcomes. With probabilities clustered below 20 percent for any single state, the market reflects uncertainty over final polling averages, turnout patterns, and late-cycle developments that could widen or narrow margins before November 3.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$11,682Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Several 2026 gubernatorial contests feature open seats or narrowly balanced electorates, spreading trader consensus across states like Ohio, Wisconsin, Kansas, and Iowa as the likeliest to produce the smallest victory margins. Ohio’s term-limited incumbent and competitive candidate field contribute to its leading position, while Wisconsin’s incumbent dynamics, Kansas’s open Democratic seat, and Iowa’s economic pressures sustain tight positioning in those markets. Georgia, New Hampshire, and Nevada remain factors due to shifting voter trends and primary outcomes. With probabilities clustered below 20 percent for any single state, the market reflects uncertainty over final polling averages, turnout patterns, and late-cycle developments that could widen or narrow margins before November 3.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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