Trader consensus on the closest 2026 Senate race centers on Texas and Iowa because recent polling averages show margins of one to three points in both contests, reflecting tight partisan divides, high-quality nominees on each side, and competitive voter mobilization in states with shifting suburban and rural turnout. Texas features a near-even matchup between the Republican nominee and a Democratic challenger that has narrowed sharply in summer surveys, while Iowa’s open Republican-held seat shows similar structural closeness amid primary results and fundraising parity. Ohio’s special election, Alaska, and Maine remain in contention as toss-ups per multiple forecasters, with candidate strength and ranked-choice voting quirks in Alaska adding uncertainty. Late-cycle polls, economic data releases before November 3, and turnout shifts in key counties could widen or further compress these margins.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoTexas 26%
Iowa 22.4%
Maine 15%
Ohio (Special) 13.1%
$28,230 Vol.
$28,230 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Texas
26%
Iowa
22%
Maine
15%
Ohio (Special)
13%
Alaska
12%
Nebraska
5%
Michigan
5%
New Mexico
3%
Florida (Special)
3%
Virginia
2%
North Carolina
2%
New Hampshire
1%
Georgia
1%
Colorado
1%
Minnesota
1%
Montana
<1%
Texas 26%
Iowa 22.4%
Maine 15%
Ohio (Special) 13.1%
$28,230 Vol.
$28,230 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Texas
$1,078 Vol.
26%
Iowa
$2,677 Vol.
22%
Maine
$1,285 Vol.
15%
Ohio (Special)
$5,040 Vol.
13%
Alaska
$5,272 Vol.
12%
Nebraska
$275 Vol.
5%
Michigan
$2,490 Vol.
5%
New Mexico
$160 Vol.
3%
Florida (Special)
$253 Vol.
3%
Virginia
$5,073 Vol.
2%
North Carolina
$621 Vol.
2%
New Hampshire
$485 Vol.
1%
Georgia
$752 Vol.
1%
Colorado
$662 Vol.
1%
Minnesota
$1,489 Vol.
1%
Montana
$616 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on the closest 2026 Senate race centers on Texas and Iowa because recent polling averages show margins of one to three points in both contests, reflecting tight partisan divides, high-quality nominees on each side, and competitive voter mobilization in states with shifting suburban and rural turnout. Texas features a near-even matchup between the Republican nominee and a Democratic challenger that has narrowed sharply in summer surveys, while Iowa’s open Republican-held seat shows similar structural closeness amid primary results and fundraising parity. Ohio’s special election, Alaska, and Maine remain in contention as toss-ups per multiple forecasters, with candidate strength and ranked-choice voting quirks in Alaska adding uncertainty. Late-cycle polls, economic data releases before November 3, and turnout shifts in key counties could widen or further compress these margins.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
Volumen
$28,230Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on the closest 2026 Senate race centers on Texas and Iowa because recent polling averages show margins of one to three points in both contests, reflecting tight partisan divides, high-quality nominees on each side, and competitive voter mobilization in states with shifting suburban and rural turnout. Texas features a near-even matchup between the Republican nominee and a Democratic challenger that has narrowed sharply in summer surveys, while Iowa’s open Republican-held seat shows similar structural closeness amid primary results and fundraising parity. Ohio’s special election, Alaska, and Maine remain in contention as toss-ups per multiple forecasters, with candidate strength and ranked-choice voting quirks in Alaska adding uncertainty. Late-cycle polls, economic data releases before November 3, and turnout shifts in key counties could widen or further compress these margins.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$28,230Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on the closest 2026 Senate race centers on Texas and Iowa because recent polling averages show margins of one to three points in both contests, reflecting tight partisan divides, high-quality nominees on each side, and competitive voter mobilization in states with shifting suburban and rural turnout. Texas features a near-even matchup between the Republican nominee and a Democratic challenger that has narrowed sharply in summer surveys, while Iowa’s open Republican-held seat shows similar structural closeness amid primary results and fundraising parity. Ohio’s special election, Alaska, and Maine remain in contention as toss-ups per multiple forecasters, with candidate strength and ranked-choice voting quirks in Alaska adding uncertainty. Late-cycle polls, economic data releases before November 3, and turnout shifts in key counties could widen or further compress these margins.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
¿Tendrá Ohio la contienda para gobernador más reñida en 2026?
19%
Sí
¿La contienda por el Senado de Texas en 2026 estará dentro de un margen del 5%?
72%
Sí
¿Ganará el Partido Demócrata el voto popular en las elecciones intermedias de la Cámara de Representantes de EE. UU. de 2026 por un margen de entre 8% y 10%?
27%
Sí
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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