US special forces entered Venezuela on January 3, 2026, launching airstrikes on Caracas and capturing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife in a targeted operation, marking the initial military incursion that traders view as the baseline event. Since then, no additional US troop deployments or ground entries have occurred, with officials including Secretary of State Marco Rubio stating no plans for further military action amid a continued naval blockade and sanctions to pressure a political transition. Recent developments include US diplomats, CIA personnel, and military advisors arriving in late April to support upcoming Venezuelan elections and negotiations with interim leaders, reflecting de-escalation and diplomatic focus over escalation. Absent new provocations like territorial disputes or failed talks, trader consensus implies low probabilities for re-entry by mid-2026 dates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$1,298,259 Vol.
31 ene 2026
30 de junio
6%
$1,298,259 Vol.
30 de junio
$213,496 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US special forces entered Venezuela on January 3, 2026, launching airstrikes on Caracas and capturing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife in a targeted operation, marking the initial military incursion that traders view as the baseline event. Since then, no additional US troop deployments or ground entries have occurred, with officials including Secretary of State Marco Rubio stating no plans for further military action amid a continued naval blockade and sanctions to pressure a political transition. Recent developments include US diplomats, CIA personnel, and military advisors arriving in late April to support upcoming Venezuelan elections and negotiations with interim leaders, reflecting de-escalation and diplomatic focus over escalation. Absent new provocations like territorial disputes or failed talks, trader consensus implies low probabilities for re-entry by mid-2026 dates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jan 4, 2026, 2:05 PM ET
Volumen
$1,298,259Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 4, 2026, 2:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US special forces entered Venezuela on January 3, 2026, launching airstrikes on Caracas and capturing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife in a targeted operation, marking the initial military incursion that traders view as the baseline event. Since then, no additional US troop deployments or ground entries have occurred, with officials including Secretary of State Marco Rubio stating no plans for further military action amid a continued naval blockade and sanctions to pressure a political transition. Recent developments include US diplomats, CIA personnel, and military advisors arriving in late April to support upcoming Venezuelan elections and negotiations with interim leaders, reflecting de-escalation and diplomatic focus over escalation. Absent new provocations like territorial disputes or failed talks, trader consensus implies low probabilities for re-entry by mid-2026 dates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,298,259Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 4, 2026, 2:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US special forces entered Venezuela on January 3, 2026, launching airstrikes on Caracas and capturing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife in a targeted operation, marking the initial military incursion that traders view as the baseline event. Since then, no additional US troop deployments or ground entries have occurred, with officials including Secretary of State Marco Rubio stating no plans for further military action amid a continued naval blockade and sanctions to pressure a political transition. Recent developments include US diplomats, CIA personnel, and military advisors arriving in late April to support upcoming Venezuelan elections and negotiations with interim leaders, reflecting de-escalation and diplomatic focus over escalation. Absent new provocations like territorial disputes or failed talks, trader consensus implies low probabilities for re-entry by mid-2026 dates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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