President Trump extended the April 2026 US-Iran ceasefire indefinitely pending negotiations, yet both sides have repeatedly violated the truce amid disputes over Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief, and control of the Strait of Hormuz. Renewed US airstrikes followed an Iranian downing of an American helicopter near the strait in early June, while indirect talks mediated by Pakistan and Gulf states continue without a finalized extension or permanent agreement. Trader focus centers on whether ongoing military exchanges, Iranian demands for concessions, or failure to reopen shipping lanes will prompt Trump to formally end the pause before scheduled diplomatic deadlines or further escalation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Trump anuncia el alto el fuego entre Estados Unidos e Irán para el...?
¿Trump anuncia el alto el fuego entre Estados Unidos e Irán para el...?
NUEVO
$582,154 Vol.
13 jun 2026
12 de junio
5%
15 de junio
11%
30 de junio
19%
$582,154 Vol.
12 de junio
$318,819 Vol.
5%
15 de junio
$171,466 Vol.
11%
30 de junio
$88,471 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. publicly and officially announces, between Market Creation and the End Date (11:59 PM ET) that no ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is in effect. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any commitment in effect between the U.S. and Iran to refrain from military hostilities.
Statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement will qualify.
The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify.
Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify.
Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in military hostilities will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account), and videos posted on his social media accounts, will qualify.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.President Trump extended the April 2026 US-Iran ceasefire indefinitely pending negotiations, yet both sides have repeatedly violated the truce amid disputes over Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief, and control of the Strait of Hormuz. Renewed US airstrikes followed an Iranian downing of an American helicopter near the strait in early June, while indirect talks mediated by Pakistan and Gulf states continue without a finalized extension or permanent agreement. Trader focus centers on whether ongoing military exchanges, Iranian demands for concessions, or failure to reopen shipping lanes will prompt Trump to formally end the pause before scheduled diplomatic deadlines or further escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. publicly and officially announces, between Market Creation and the End Date (11:59 PM ET) that no ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is in effect. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any commitment in effect between the U.S. and Iran to refrain from military hostilities.
Statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement will qualify.
The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify.
Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify.
Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in military hostilities will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account), and videos posted on his social media accounts, will qualify.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any commitment in effect between the U.S. and Iran to refrain from military hostilities.
Statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement will qualify.
The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify.
Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify.
Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in military hostilities will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account), and videos posted on his social media accounts, will qualify.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Jun 8, 2026, 9:53 PM ET
Volumen
$582,154Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 8, 2026, 9:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. publicly and officially announces, between Market Creation and the End Date (11:59 PM ET) that no ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is in effect. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any commitment in effect between the U.S. and Iran to refrain from military hostilities.
Statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement will qualify.
The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify.
Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify.
Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in military hostilities will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account), and videos posted on his social media accounts, will qualify.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.President Trump extended the April 2026 US-Iran ceasefire indefinitely pending negotiations, yet both sides have repeatedly violated the truce amid disputes over Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief, and control of the Strait of Hormuz. Renewed US airstrikes followed an Iranian downing of an American helicopter near the strait in early June, while indirect talks mediated by Pakistan and Gulf states continue without a finalized extension or permanent agreement. Trader focus centers on whether ongoing military exchanges, Iranian demands for concessions, or failure to reopen shipping lanes will prompt Trump to formally end the pause before scheduled diplomatic deadlines or further escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. publicly and officially announces, between Market Creation and the End Date (11:59 PM ET) that no ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is in effect. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any commitment in effect between the U.S. and Iran to refrain from military hostilities.
Statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement will qualify.
The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify.
Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify.
Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in military hostilities will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account), and videos posted on his social media accounts, will qualify.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any commitment in effect between the U.S. and Iran to refrain from military hostilities.
Statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement will qualify.
The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify.
Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify.
Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in military hostilities will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account), and videos posted on his social media accounts, will qualify.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
Volumen
$582,154Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 8, 2026, 9:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump extended the April 2026 US-Iran ceasefire indefinitely pending negotiations, yet both sides have repeatedly violated the truce amid disputes over Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief, and control of the Strait of Hormuz. Renewed US airstrikes followed an Iranian downing of an American helicopter near the strait in early June, while indirect talks mediated by Pakistan and Gulf states continue without a finalized extension or permanent agreement. Trader focus centers on whether ongoing military exchanges, Iranian demands for concessions, or failure to reopen shipping lanes will prompt Trump to formally end the pause before scheduled diplomatic deadlines or further escalation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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