Recent developments in the U.S.-Iran conflict, including a temporary ceasefire holding since early April 2026 and the phased reopening of Iranian airspace in late April and early May, have shaped trader views on renewed closures. Commercial flights resumed at Tehran’s Imam Khomeini International Airport on May 1 after nearly two months of suspension triggered by February strikes, yet many international carriers continue rerouting to avoid the region. Lingering risks from potential missile activity, regional military postures, and fragile de-escalation talks keep the probability of another broad suspension elevated in the near term, while scheduled diplomatic contacts and the absence of major new escalations through mid-May support longer timelines. Traders weigh these factors against historical patterns of airspace restrictions during active Middle East tensions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoIran bans small private aircraft flights amid regional tensions
May 15 jumps to 14%5%
Iran issued a notice banning small private aircraft from flying in the country, with exceptions for the oil industry and emergency medical flights. This indicated heightened security concerns but did not constitute a major airspace closure affecting commercial flights.
Iran resumes commercial flights at Tehran’s international airport after war hiatus
May 15 plunges to 4%28%
On May 9, 2026, Iranian state media reported the resumption of commercial flights at Imam Khomeini International Airport in Tehran for the first time since the war with the United States and Israel began. This reopening indicated that Iran's airspace was not broadly closed and commercial aviation was operational, reducing the likelihood of a major airspace closure by the May 15 deadline.
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