Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, stemming from the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran that began in late February 2026, remain the dominant driver behind trader consensus pricing the 20-39 ship transit bucket at 62.5% implied probability for the week of May 11. Pre-war baselines exceeded 100 daily commercial passages, but recent vessel-tracking data from sources including Kpler and Lloyd’s List show daily averages stuck in the single digits amid safety concerns, naval restrictions, and over 1,500 stranded vessels. This sharp contraction—now roughly 5% of historical norms—has elevated insurance costs and redirected energy and commodity flows, sustaining elevated odds for the lower range while capping upside in the 40-59 bucket at 28.0%. Market participants are monitoring any U.S.-guided transit initiatives or de-escalation signals for potential last-minute shifts ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?
20-39 63%
40-59 25%
<20 6.0%
60-79 5.8%
$79,175 Vol.
$79,175 Vol.
17 may 2026
<20
6%
20-39
63%
40-59
25%
60-79
6%
80+
2%
20-39 63%
40-59 25%
<20 6.0%
60-79 5.8%
$79,175 Vol.
$79,175 Vol.
17 may 2026
<20
$27,975 Vol.
6%
20-39
$13,302 Vol.
63%
40-59
$14,449 Vol.
25%
60-79
$12,011 Vol.
6%
80+
$11,437 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, stemming from the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran that began in late February 2026, remain the dominant driver behind trader consensus pricing the 20-39 ship transit bucket at 62.5% implied probability for the week of May 11. Pre-war baselines exceeded 100 daily commercial passages, but recent vessel-tracking data from sources including Kpler and Lloyd’s List show daily averages stuck in the single digits amid safety concerns, naval restrictions, and over 1,500 stranded vessels. This sharp contraction—now roughly 5% of historical norms—has elevated insurance costs and redirected energy and commodity flows, sustaining elevated odds for the lower range while capping upside in the 40-59 bucket at 28.0%. Market participants are monitoring any U.S.-guided transit initiatives or de-escalation signals for potential last-minute shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado abierto: May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ET
Volumen
$79,175Fecha de finalización
17 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, stemming from the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran that began in late February 2026, remain the dominant driver behind trader consensus pricing the 20-39 ship transit bucket at 62.5% implied probability for the week of May 11. Pre-war baselines exceeded 100 daily commercial passages, but recent vessel-tracking data from sources including Kpler and Lloyd’s List show daily averages stuck in the single digits amid safety concerns, naval restrictions, and over 1,500 stranded vessels. This sharp contraction—now roughly 5% of historical norms—has elevated insurance costs and redirected energy and commodity flows, sustaining elevated odds for the lower range while capping upside in the 40-59 bucket at 28.0%. Market participants are monitoring any U.S.-guided transit initiatives or de-escalation signals for potential last-minute shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$79,175Fecha de finalización
17 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, stemming from the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran that began in late February 2026, remain the dominant driver behind trader consensus pricing the 20-39 ship transit bucket at 62.5% implied probability for the week of May 11. Pre-war baselines exceeded 100 daily commercial passages, but recent vessel-tracking data from sources including Kpler and Lloyd’s List show daily averages stuck in the single digits amid safety concerns, naval restrictions, and over 1,500 stranded vessels. This sharp contraction—now roughly 5% of historical norms—has elevated insurance costs and redirected energy and commodity flows, sustaining elevated odds for the lower range while capping upside in the 40-59 bucket at 28.0%. Market participants are monitoring any U.S.-guided transit initiatives or de-escalation signals for potential last-minute shifts ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes