The Gaza ceasefire, in effect since October 2025 under a U.S.-brokered 20-point plan, remains stalled over Hamas disarmament, deemed "not negotiable" by Board of Peace envoy Nickolay Mladenov on May 13 amid mutual violations that have killed over 850 Palestinians and several Israelis. Israel, controlling over 50% of Gaza territory, has expanded outposts and conducted near-daily strikes justified as preemptive, while rejecting further withdrawals without Hamas relinquishing weapons; Hamas cites Israeli breaches blocking aid and phase-one implementation. No extension announcement has occurred, with trader consensus reflecting deadlock risks and potential war resumption. Upcoming U.S.-Lebanon diplomatic talks in Washington may indirectly influence Gaza dynamics via regional de-escalation signals.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoIsrael Announces Ceasefire Extended by...?
Israel Announces Ceasefire Extended by...?
$195,013 Vol.
17 may 2026
May 15
14%
May 16
49%
May 17
58%
$195,013 Vol.
May 15
$36,608 Vol.
14%
May 16
$49,385 Vol.
49%
May 17
$37,618 Vol.
58%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel officially announces another extension of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced commitment to halt direct military engagement with Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify.
If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.
A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed Israeli announcement of a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify.
A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly extend the ceasefire, will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and will not require confirmation from Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting that a ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.The Gaza ceasefire, in effect since October 2025 under a U.S.-brokered 20-point plan, remains stalled over Hamas disarmament, deemed "not negotiable" by Board of Peace envoy Nickolay Mladenov on May 13 amid mutual violations that have killed over 850 Palestinians and several Israelis. Israel, controlling over 50% of Gaza territory, has expanded outposts and conducted near-daily strikes justified as preemptive, while rejecting further withdrawals without Hamas relinquishing weapons; Hamas cites Israeli breaches blocking aid and phase-one implementation. No extension announcement has occurred, with trader consensus reflecting deadlock risks and potential war resumption. Upcoming U.S.-Lebanon diplomatic talks in Washington may indirectly influence Gaza dynamics via regional de-escalation signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel officially announces another extension of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced commitment to halt direct military engagement with Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify.
If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.
A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed Israeli announcement of a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify.
A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly extend the ceasefire, will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and will not require confirmation from Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting that a ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.
Both announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify.
If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.
A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed Israeli announcement of a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify.
A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly extend the ceasefire, will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and will not require confirmation from Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting that a ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.
Mercado abierto: May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
Volumen
$195,013Fecha de finalización
17 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel officially announces another extension of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced commitment to halt direct military engagement with Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify.
If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.
A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed Israeli announcement of a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify.
A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly extend the ceasefire, will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and will not require confirmation from Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting that a ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.The Gaza ceasefire, in effect since October 2025 under a U.S.-brokered 20-point plan, remains stalled over Hamas disarmament, deemed "not negotiable" by Board of Peace envoy Nickolay Mladenov on May 13 amid mutual violations that have killed over 850 Palestinians and several Israelis. Israel, controlling over 50% of Gaza territory, has expanded outposts and conducted near-daily strikes justified as preemptive, while rejecting further withdrawals without Hamas relinquishing weapons; Hamas cites Israeli breaches blocking aid and phase-one implementation. No extension announcement has occurred, with trader consensus reflecting deadlock risks and potential war resumption. Upcoming U.S.-Lebanon diplomatic talks in Washington may indirectly influence Gaza dynamics via regional de-escalation signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel officially announces another extension of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced commitment to halt direct military engagement with Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify.
If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.
A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed Israeli announcement of a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify.
A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly extend the ceasefire, will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and will not require confirmation from Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting that a ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.
Both announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify.
If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.
A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation, or unilateral pause in hostilities without a confirmed Israeli announcement of a qualifying extension will not qualify. Similarly, newly agreed-upon humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not qualify.
A newly agreed-upon broader peace deal will qualify if it includes Israel's agreement to a ceasefire extension. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures, but do not explicitly extend the ceasefire, will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli government and will not require confirmation from Hezbollah. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting that a ceasefire extension agreement has been reached will suffice.
Volumen
$195,013Fecha de finalización
17 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Gaza ceasefire, in effect since October 2025 under a U.S.-brokered 20-point plan, remains stalled over Hamas disarmament, deemed "not negotiable" by Board of Peace envoy Nickolay Mladenov on May 13 amid mutual violations that have killed over 850 Palestinians and several Israelis. Israel, controlling over 50% of Gaza territory, has expanded outposts and conducted near-daily strikes justified as preemptive, while rejecting further withdrawals without Hamas relinquishing weapons; Hamas cites Israeli breaches blocking aid and phase-one implementation. No extension announcement has occurred, with trader consensus reflecting deadlock risks and potential war resumption. Upcoming U.S.-Lebanon diplomatic talks in Washington may indirectly influence Gaza dynamics via regional de-escalation signals.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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