**Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the US-Iran conflict, which began with strikes in late February 2026, remain the dominant driver of subdued ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.** Pre-war daily averages exceeded 100–160 vessels; post-conflict levels collapsed to single digits amid Iranian threats, attacks, and mine risks, cutting roughly 20% of global oil and LNG flows and elevating tanker rates plus insurance premiums. A April 8 ceasefire and recent threat-level downgrade from critical to severe have allowed modest recovery, with US officials noting “very meaningful” increases and reports of hundreds of vessels escorted through by early June. Yet persistent uncertainty over Iranian asymmetric capabilities, rerouting around Africa, and unresolved diplomatic deadlock keeps implied probabilities clustered around low-to-moderate ranges. The close contest between the 0–10 (33.5%) and 20–40 (27.5%) buckets reflects trader assessments of whether gradual normalization—supported by naval protection and summer demand—can lift the end-of-June average above 20 before residual risks reassert themselves. Key swing factors include any fresh incidents, insurance market signals, and visible daily transit counts in the coming fortnight.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAvg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of June?
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of June?
0-10 34%
20-40 28%
10-20 16%
40-60 13.9%
$58,190 Vol.
$58,190 Vol.
30 jun 2026
0-10
34%
10-20
16%
20-40
28%
40-60
14%
60+
12%
0-10 34%
20-40 28%
10-20 16%
40-60 13.9%
$58,190 Vol.
$58,190 Vol.
30 jun 2026
0-10
$24,026 Vol.
34%
10-20
$6,257 Vol.
16%
20-40
$6,085 Vol.
28%
40-60
$6,458 Vol.
14%
60+
$15,835 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for June 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the US-Iran conflict, which began with strikes in late February 2026, remain the dominant driver of subdued ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.** Pre-war daily averages exceeded 100–160 vessels; post-conflict levels collapsed to single digits amid Iranian threats, attacks, and mine risks, cutting roughly 20% of global oil and LNG flows and elevating tanker rates plus insurance premiums. A April 8 ceasefire and recent threat-level downgrade from critical to severe have allowed modest recovery, with US officials noting “very meaningful” increases and reports of hundreds of vessels escorted through by early June.
Yet persistent uncertainty over Iranian asymmetric capabilities, rerouting around Africa, and unresolved diplomatic deadlock keeps implied probabilities clustered around low-to-moderate ranges. The close contest between the 0–10 (33.5%) and 20–40 (27.5%) buckets reflects trader assessments of whether gradual normalization—supported by naval protection and summer demand—can lift the end-of-June average above 20 before residual risks reassert themselves. Key swing factors include any fresh incidents, insurance market signals, and visible daily transit counts in the coming fortnight.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for June 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado abierto: May 31, 2026, 8:25 PM ET
Volumen
$58,190Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 31, 2026, 8:25 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for June 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the US-Iran conflict, which began with strikes in late February 2026, remain the dominant driver of subdued ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.** Pre-war daily averages exceeded 100–160 vessels; post-conflict levels collapsed to single digits amid Iranian threats, attacks, and mine risks, cutting roughly 20% of global oil and LNG flows and elevating tanker rates plus insurance premiums. A April 8 ceasefire and recent threat-level downgrade from critical to severe have allowed modest recovery, with US officials noting “very meaningful” increases and reports of hundreds of vessels escorted through by early June.
Yet persistent uncertainty over Iranian asymmetric capabilities, rerouting around Africa, and unresolved diplomatic deadlock keeps implied probabilities clustered around low-to-moderate ranges. The close contest between the 0–10 (33.5%) and 20–40 (27.5%) buckets reflects trader assessments of whether gradual normalization—supported by naval protection and summer demand—can lift the end-of-June average above 20 before residual risks reassert themselves. Key swing factors include any fresh incidents, insurance market signals, and visible daily transit counts in the coming fortnight.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for June 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$58,190Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
May 31, 2026, 8:25 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the US-Iran conflict, which began with strikes in late February 2026, remain the dominant driver of subdued ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.** Pre-war daily averages exceeded 100–160 vessels; post-conflict levels collapsed to single digits amid Iranian threats, attacks, and mine risks, cutting roughly 20% of global oil and LNG flows and elevating tanker rates plus insurance premiums. A April 8 ceasefire and recent threat-level downgrade from critical to severe have allowed modest recovery, with US officials noting “very meaningful” increases and reports of hundreds of vessels escorted through by early June. Yet persistent uncertainty over Iranian asymmetric capabilities, rerouting around Africa, and unresolved diplomatic deadlock keeps implied probabilities clustered around low-to-moderate ranges. The close contest between the 0–10 (33.5%) and 20–40 (27.5%) buckets reflects trader assessments of whether gradual normalization—supported by naval protection and summer demand—can lift the end-of-June average above 20 before residual risks reassert themselves. Key swing factors include any fresh incidents, insurance market signals, and visible daily transit counts in the coming fortnight.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes