Traders assign a 98.4% probability that Donald Trump will not rename the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, driven by the lack of any constitutional or statutory authority for a U.S. president to unilaterally alter the designation of an international waterway involving multiple sovereign states. No official announcements, executive actions, or policy signals have emerged indicating consideration of such a step, and geographic naming typically involves multilateral diplomatic processes or international bodies rather than domestic executive orders. The brief window remaining before the deadline reinforces this positioning, with no scheduled events or procedural pathways evident that could produce the required outcome. Late developments such as an unexpected directive would still face significant legal and practical barriers to implementation.