Ongoing US-Iran conflict and associated maritime risks since late February 2026 remain the dominant driver of suppressed transits through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping weekly ship counts well below historical averages of roughly 700–1,000 vessels. Data as of early June show daily passages averaging just 4–10 ships amid naval blockades, attack threats, and widespread rerouting by carriers, with many vessels idling or employing “going dark” tactics. These conditions have produced the current market-implied distribution, where 25–49 transits for the week of June 8 command a 66.5% probability and sub-25 outcomes sit at 29%, reflecting trader consensus that volumes will stay near the recent low baseline. Persistent uncertainty around interim ceasefires and safe-passage negotiations could introduce modest upside variance, though near-term catalysts point to continued constrained flows.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of June 8?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of June 8?
25-49 69%
<25 30%
100+ 1.1%
50-74 1.1%
$41,572 Vol.
$41,572 Vol.
14 jun 2026
<25
30%
25-49
69%
50-74
1%
75-99
1%
100+
1%
25-49 69%
<25 30%
100+ 1.1%
50-74 1.1%
$41,572 Vol.
$41,572 Vol.
14 jun 2026
<25
$11,871 Vol.
30%
25-49
$7,264 Vol.
69%
50-74
$3,946 Vol.
1%
75-99
$3,220 Vol.
1%
100+
$15,387 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 8, 2026, through June 14, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran conflict and associated maritime risks since late February 2026 remain the dominant driver of suppressed transits through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping weekly ship counts well below historical averages of roughly 700–1,000 vessels. Data as of early June show daily passages averaging just 4–10 ships amid naval blockades, attack threats, and widespread rerouting by carriers, with many vessels idling or employing “going dark” tactics. These conditions have produced the current market-implied distribution, where 25–49 transits for the week of June 8 command a 66.5% probability and sub-25 outcomes sit at 29%, reflecting trader consensus that volumes will stay near the recent low baseline. Persistent uncertainty around interim ceasefires and safe-passage negotiations could introduce modest upside variance, though near-term catalysts point to continued constrained flows.
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 8, 2026, through June 14, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado abierto: Jun 5, 2026, 3:40 PM ET
Volumen
$41,572Fecha de finalización
14 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 5, 2026, 3:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 8, 2026, through June 14, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran conflict and associated maritime risks since late February 2026 remain the dominant driver of suppressed transits through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping weekly ship counts well below historical averages of roughly 700–1,000 vessels. Data as of early June show daily passages averaging just 4–10 ships amid naval blockades, attack threats, and widespread rerouting by carriers, with many vessels idling or employing “going dark” tactics. These conditions have produced the current market-implied distribution, where 25–49 transits for the week of June 8 command a 66.5% probability and sub-25 outcomes sit at 29%, reflecting trader consensus that volumes will stay near the recent low baseline. Persistent uncertainty around interim ceasefires and safe-passage negotiations could introduce modest upside variance, though near-term catalysts point to continued constrained flows.
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from June 8, 2026, through June 14, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$41,572Fecha de finalización
14 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 5, 2026, 3:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing US-Iran conflict and associated maritime risks since late February 2026 remain the dominant driver of suppressed transits through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping weekly ship counts well below historical averages of roughly 700–1,000 vessels. Data as of early June show daily passages averaging just 4–10 ships amid naval blockades, attack threats, and widespread rerouting by carriers, with many vessels idling or employing “going dark” tactics. These conditions have produced the current market-implied distribution, where 25–49 transits for the week of June 8 command a 66.5% probability and sub-25 outcomes sit at 29%, reflecting trader consensus that volumes will stay near the recent low baseline. Persistent uncertainty around interim ceasefires and safe-passage negotiations could introduce modest upside variance, though near-term catalysts point to continued constrained flows.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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