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icon for ¿Estados Unidos e Irán firman un acuerdo por...?

¿Estados Unidos e Irán firman un acuerdo por...?

icon for ¿Estados Unidos e Irán firman un acuerdo por...?

¿Estados Unidos e Irán firman un acuerdo por...?

NUEVO
16 jun 2026
Polymarket

$108 Vol.

Polymarket

15 de junio

$7 Vol.

29%

22 de junio

$97 Vol.

44%

30 de junio

$0 Vol.

57%

31 de julio

$6 Vol.

65%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States signs any written agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document, or sign individual documents which substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying agreement, regardless of minor or translated differences between the signed versions. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US and Iranian negotiators have advanced toward a memorandum of understanding that would extend the April 2026 ceasefire by 60 days, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, ease certain sanctions, and launch follow-on talks on Iran’s nuclear program. President Trump stated on June 11 that a framework is largely finalized and a signing could occur within days in Europe, while Iranian officials have signaled continued exchanges via Pakistani mediation but expressed reservations over unresolved nuclear sequencing, asset releases, and guarantees. Limited exchanges of fire and targeted US strikes on Iranian surveillance sites in early June underscore the fragile truce. Final approvals from both leaderships and details on uranium disposition remain outstanding factors that could determine whether an agreement materializes in the near term.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States signs any written agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying agreement must be signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Both parties must either sign the same document, or sign individual documents which substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying agreement, regardless of minor or translated differences between the signed versions.

Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$108
Fecha de finalización
31 jul 2026
Mercado abierto
Jun 11, 2026, 6:12 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States signs any written agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document, or sign individual documents which substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying agreement, regardless of minor or translated differences between the signed versions. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States signs any written agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document, or sign individual documents which substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying agreement, regardless of minor or translated differences between the signed versions. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US and Iranian negotiators have advanced toward a memorandum of understanding that would extend the April 2026 ceasefire by 60 days, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, ease certain sanctions, and launch follow-on talks on Iran’s nuclear program. President Trump stated on June 11 that a framework is largely finalized and a signing could occur within days in Europe, while Iranian officials have signaled continued exchanges via Pakistani mediation but expressed reservations over unresolved nuclear sequencing, asset releases, and guarantees. Limited exchanges of fire and targeted US strikes on Iranian surveillance sites in early June underscore the fragile truce. Final approvals from both leaderships and details on uranium disposition remain outstanding factors that could determine whether an agreement materializes in the near term.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States signs any written agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying agreement must be signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Both parties must either sign the same document, or sign individual documents which substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying agreement, regardless of minor or translated differences between the signed versions.

Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$108
Fecha de finalización
31 jul 2026
Mercado abierto
Jun 11, 2026, 6:12 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States signs any written agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by both an authorized representative of the United States and an authorized representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document, or sign individual documents which substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying agreement, regardless of minor or translated differences between the signed versions. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Estados Unidos e Irán firman un acuerdo por...?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 4 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "31 de julio" con 65%, seguido de "30 de junio" con 57%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 65¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 65% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"¿Estados Unidos e Irán firman un acuerdo por...?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Jun 11, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "¿Estados Unidos e Irán firman un acuerdo por...?", explora los 4 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Estados Unidos e Irán firman un acuerdo por...?" es "31 de julio" con 65%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 65% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "30 de junio" con 57%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Estados Unidos e Irán firman un acuerdo por...?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.