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icon for Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?

Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?

icon for Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?

Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?

6% probabilidad
Polymarket

$16,292 Vol.

6% probabilidad
Polymarket

$16,292 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement relating to vessel traffic, transit management, tolling, or fee collection in the Strait of Hormuz, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Iran and Oman between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Statements describing talks, proposals, negotiations, or non-finalized frameworks that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not qualify. An agreement will qualify as a mutual agreement if it is confirmed as a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if the agreement isn’t formally announced by both governments. Agreements that include Iran and Oman as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Iran and Oman; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Iran and Oman have held deputy foreign minister talks and discussed protocols for monitoring or jointly managing transit fees through the Strait of Hormuz amid the broader 2026 regional crisis, with Iran’s ambassador to Moscow stating on June 8 that the waterway would reopen under new bilateral conditions. However, these discussions remain at the exploratory or draft stage without evidence of a finalized accord, while facing explicit U.S. opposition to Iranian oversight or toll arrangements. With only six days remaining until the June 15 deadline, the absence of any scheduled signing or breakthrough announcement supports traders’ strong consensus against near-term resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement relating to vessel traffic, transit management, tolling, or fee collection in the Strait of Hormuz, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Iran and Oman between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

Statements describing talks, proposals, negotiations, or non-finalized frameworks that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not qualify.

An agreement will qualify as a mutual agreement if it is confirmed as a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if the agreement isn’t formally announced by both governments.

Agreements that include Iran and Oman as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Iran and Oman; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volumen
$16,292
Fecha de finalización
15 jun 2026
Mercado abierto
May 22, 2026, 5:04 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement relating to vessel traffic, transit management, tolling, or fee collection in the Strait of Hormuz, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Iran and Oman between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Statements describing talks, proposals, negotiations, or non-finalized frameworks that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not qualify. An agreement will qualify as a mutual agreement if it is confirmed as a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if the agreement isn’t formally announced by both governments. Agreements that include Iran and Oman as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Iran and Oman; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement relating to vessel traffic, transit management, tolling, or fee collection in the Strait of Hormuz, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Iran and Oman between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Statements describing talks, proposals, negotiations, or non-finalized frameworks that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not qualify. An agreement will qualify as a mutual agreement if it is confirmed as a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if the agreement isn’t formally announced by both governments. Agreements that include Iran and Oman as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Iran and Oman; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Iran and Oman have held deputy foreign minister talks and discussed protocols for monitoring or jointly managing transit fees through the Strait of Hormuz amid the broader 2026 regional crisis, with Iran’s ambassador to Moscow stating on June 8 that the waterway would reopen under new bilateral conditions. However, these discussions remain at the exploratory or draft stage without evidence of a finalized accord, while facing explicit U.S. opposition to Iranian oversight or toll arrangements. With only six days remaining until the June 15 deadline, the absence of any scheduled signing or breakthrough announcement supports traders’ strong consensus against near-term resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement relating to vessel traffic, transit management, tolling, or fee collection in the Strait of Hormuz, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Iran and Oman between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.

Statements describing talks, proposals, negotiations, or non-finalized frameworks that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not qualify.

An agreement will qualify as a mutual agreement if it is confirmed as a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if the agreement isn’t formally announced by both governments.

Agreements that include Iran and Oman as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Iran and Oman; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volumen
$16,292
Fecha de finalización
15 jun 2026
Mercado abierto
May 22, 2026, 5:04 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement relating to vessel traffic, transit management, tolling, or fee collection in the Strait of Hormuz, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Iran and Oman between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Statements describing talks, proposals, negotiations, or non-finalized frameworks that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not qualify. An agreement will qualify as a mutual agreement if it is confirmed as a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if the agreement isn’t formally announced by both governments. Agreements that include Iran and Oman as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Iran and Oman; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket donde los operadores compran y venden acciones de "Sí" o "No" según si creen que este evento ocurrirá. La probabilidad actual según la comunidad es 6% para "Yes". Por ejemplo, si "Sí" se cotiza a 6¢, el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 6% de que este evento ocurra. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos e información. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?" ha generado $16.3K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el May 22, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?", simplemente elige si crees que la respuesta es "Sí" o "No". Cada lado tiene un precio actual que refleja la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si compras acciones de "Sí" y el resultado se resuelve como "Sí", cada acción paga $1. Si se resuelve como "No", tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución para asegurar ganancias o limitar pérdidas.

La probabilidad actual para "Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?" es 6% para "Yes". Esto significa que la comunidad de Polymarket actualmente cree que hay una probabilidad de 6% de que este evento ocurra. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real basándose en operaciones reales, proporcionando una señal continuamente actualizada de lo que el mercado espera.

Las reglas de resolución para "Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.