Recent U.S.-Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 targeted Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, inflicting substantial damage that assessments describe as creating multi-year setbacks to uranium enrichment capacity and weapons-related infrastructure. IAEA inspectors withdrew following the initial campaign, enriched uranium stockpiles remain largely inaccessible under rubble, and both sides have reported no resumption of enrichment activities. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum reaffirmed Tehran's commitment against nuclear weapons development amid ongoing negotiations after an April ceasefire. With only months remaining until the 2027 threshold, these verified disruptions underpin the 95.5% implied probability traders assign to "No." Plausible shifts could still arise from undetected rapid reconstruction, accelerated weaponization decisions, or major changes in diplomatic or security conditions.