Israel’s response to renewed Houthi missile and drone attacks on its territory since late March 2026 remains the central driver of trader probabilities in this market. Iran-backed Houthi forces resumed strikes on Israeli targets including Beersheba and southern military sites, claiming coordination with Iran and Hezbollah, with multiple barrages intercepted by Israeli air defenses through early April. No confirmed Israeli strikes on Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen have occurred in the past month, though prior joint U.S.-Israeli operations in 2025 demonstrated significant intelligence penetration and damage to Houthi capabilities. Traders weigh the risk of further Houthi escalation against Israel’s pattern of calibrated retaliation to deter Red Sea threats and maintain deterrence, with any new attacks or diplomatic signals likely to shift near-term odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Acción militar de Israel contra Yemen por...?
¿Acción militar de Israel contra Yemen por...?
$1,731,364 Vol.
31 may 2026
31 de mayo
14%
30 de junio
23%
$1,731,364 Vol.
31 de mayo
$115,069 Vol.
14%
30 de junio
$463,285 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Israeli local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel’s response to renewed Houthi missile and drone attacks on its territory since late March 2026 remains the central driver of trader probabilities in this market. Iran-backed Houthi forces resumed strikes on Israeli targets including Beersheba and southern military sites, claiming coordination with Iran and Hezbollah, with multiple barrages intercepted by Israeli air defenses through early April. No confirmed Israeli strikes on Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen have occurred in the past month, though prior joint U.S.-Israeli operations in 2025 demonstrated significant intelligence penetration and damage to Houthi capabilities. Traders weigh the risk of further Houthi escalation against Israel’s pattern of calibrated retaliation to deter Red Sea threats and maintain deterrence, with any new attacks or diplomatic signals likely to shift near-term odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Israeli local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 18, 2026, 1:43 PM ET
Volumen
$1,731,364Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 18, 2026, 1:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Israeli local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel’s response to renewed Houthi missile and drone attacks on its territory since late March 2026 remains the central driver of trader probabilities in this market. Iran-backed Houthi forces resumed strikes on Israeli targets including Beersheba and southern military sites, claiming coordination with Iran and Hezbollah, with multiple barrages intercepted by Israeli air defenses through early April. No confirmed Israeli strikes on Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen have occurred in the past month, though prior joint U.S.-Israeli operations in 2025 demonstrated significant intelligence penetration and damage to Houthi capabilities. Traders weigh the risk of further Houthi escalation against Israel’s pattern of calibrated retaliation to deter Red Sea threats and maintain deterrence, with any new attacks or diplomatic signals likely to shift near-term odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Israeli local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,731,364Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 18, 2026, 1:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel’s response to renewed Houthi missile and drone attacks on its territory since late March 2026 remains the central driver of trader probabilities in this market. Iran-backed Houthi forces resumed strikes on Israeli targets including Beersheba and southern military sites, claiming coordination with Iran and Hezbollah, with multiple barrages intercepted by Israeli air defenses through early April. No confirmed Israeli strikes on Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen have occurred in the past month, though prior joint U.S.-Israeli operations in 2025 demonstrated significant intelligence penetration and damage to Houthi capabilities. Traders weigh the risk of further Houthi escalation against Israel’s pattern of calibrated retaliation to deter Red Sea threats and maintain deterrence, with any new attacks or diplomatic signals likely to shift near-term odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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