Trump’s proposed tariff dividend, floated in late 2025 as $2,000 payments to lower- and middle-income Americans funded by import duties, lacks any enacted legislation or funding mechanism nearly four months before the December 31, 2026 deadline. The Supreme Court’s February 2026 ruling invalidated the primary tariffs used to justify the idea, triggering refunds to importers rather than new revenue streams. No administration proposal has advanced through Congress, a smaller Senate rebate bill remains stalled in committee, and independent analyses show projected 2026 tariff collections fall far short of the estimated $300–450 billion cost. Recent statements from officials and stalled revenue sources have reinforced trader expectations that no qualifying program will be implemented.