North Korea maintains its formal designation of South Korea as a hostile state while conducting routine short-range missile tests and criticizing U.S.-South Korea-Japan military exercises, as seen in statements and launches through early August 2026. These actions align with established patterns of deterrence signaling and alignment with Russia and China rather than preparations for large-scale conventional invasion. South Korean President Lee Jae Myung's administration has advanced "peace first" initiatives, including proposals for dialogue to end the Korean War armistice, which Pyongyang has rebuffed without corresponding escalatory troop movements or border incidents. Traders assign a 96.2% implied probability to no invasion before 2027 due to the absence of verifiable mobilization indicators and the limited remaining timeframe. Plausible shifts could still arise from miscalculation during upcoming exercises or sudden internal instability in Pyongyang, though such outcomes remain low-probability in the current window.