North Korea’s recent constitutional amendments, adopted in March and detailed publicly in early May, formally treat South Korea as a separate bordering state while removing unification language and territorial claims over the peninsula. This institutionalizes Pyongyang’s “two hostile states” framework and signals an intent to avoid miscalculation or unprovoked aggression. Routine ballistic missile launches into eastern waters in April and limited maritime incidents have continued without accompanying troop movements, artillery concentrations, or other indicators of offensive preparation along the demilitarized zone. Kim Jong Un has instead emphasized irreversible nuclear deterrence, expanded cooperation with Russia, and internal military modernization focused on defensive and long-range capabilities. These developments reinforce trader consensus that the risk of a full-scale invasion by the end of 2026 remains low.