Trader consensus reflects a 92% implied probability of no US-China military clash before 2027, driven by recent high-level diplomacy amid Taiwan Strait tensions. At the May 13-14 Beijing summit, President Xi Jinping warned President Trump that mishandling Taiwan could spark collision or conflict, yet both leaders struck positive notes on trade—China pledging Boeing jet purchases and US agricultural buys—while agreeing on Strait of Hormuz stability amid the Iran war. US intelligence in March assessed China lacks a fixed 2027 Taiwan invasion timeline, with no recent military incidents like live-fire drills since late 2025. Economic interdependence and mutual de-escalation signals outweigh rhetoric, though accidental encounters or blockade escalation could shift odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Enfrentamiento militar entre Estados Unidos y China antes de 2027?
¿Enfrentamiento militar entre Estados Unidos y China antes de 2027?
Sí
$106,316 Vol.
$106,316 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$106,316 Vol.
$106,316 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects a 92% implied probability of no US-China military clash before 2027, driven by recent high-level diplomacy amid Taiwan Strait tensions. At the May 13-14 Beijing summit, President Xi Jinping warned President Trump that mishandling Taiwan could spark collision or conflict, yet both leaders struck positive notes on trade—China pledging Boeing jet purchases and US agricultural buys—while agreeing on Strait of Hormuz stability amid the Iran war. US intelligence in March assessed China lacks a fixed 2027 Taiwan invasion timeline, with no recent military incidents like live-fire drills since late 2025. Economic interdependence and mutual de-escalation signals outweigh rhetoric, though accidental encounters or blockade escalation could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Volumen
$106,316Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects a 92% implied probability of no US-China military clash before 2027, driven by recent high-level diplomacy amid Taiwan Strait tensions. At the May 13-14 Beijing summit, President Xi Jinping warned President Trump that mishandling Taiwan could spark collision or conflict, yet both leaders struck positive notes on trade—China pledging Boeing jet purchases and US agricultural buys—while agreeing on Strait of Hormuz stability amid the Iran war. US intelligence in March assessed China lacks a fixed 2027 Taiwan invasion timeline, with no recent military incidents like live-fire drills since late 2025. Economic interdependence and mutual de-escalation signals outweigh rhetoric, though accidental encounters or blockade escalation could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$106,316Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 92% implied probability of no US-China military clash before 2027, driven by recent high-level diplomacy amid Taiwan Strait tensions. At the May 13-14 Beijing summit, President Xi Jinping warned President Trump that mishandling Taiwan could spark collision or conflict, yet both leaders struck positive notes on trade—China pledging Boeing jet purchases and US agricultural buys—while agreeing on Strait of Hormuz stability amid the Iran war. US intelligence in March assessed China lacks a fixed 2027 Taiwan invasion timeline, with no recent military incidents like live-fire drills since late 2025. Economic interdependence and mutual de-escalation signals outweigh rhetoric, though accidental encounters or blockade escalation could shift odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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