Jimmy Lai remains in detention in Hong Kong under the national security law, where his trial on charges of collusion with foreign forces has proceeded in extended phases without any scheduled resolution before late June. The 98.5% implied probability against release by June 30 reflects the structural constraints of the judicial timeline, prior court decisions denying bail, and the absence of executive intervention or diplomatic breakthroughs that would alter custody status. Historical patterns for similar national security cases show sentences measured in years rather than months. Scenarios that could still affect the outcome include a sudden health-related medical parole decision, a major shift in bilateral relations prompting Beijing to authorize early release, or an unexpected procedural ruling that shortens the current remand period.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$274,179 Vol.
$274,179 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sí
$274,179 Vol.
$274,179 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count.
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Jimmy Lai remains in detention in Hong Kong under the national security law, where his trial on charges of collusion with foreign forces has proceeded in extended phases without any scheduled resolution before late June. The 98.5% implied probability against release by June 30 reflects the structural constraints of the judicial timeline, prior court decisions denying bail, and the absence of executive intervention or diplomatic breakthroughs that would alter custody status. Historical patterns for similar national security cases show sentences measured in years rather than months. Scenarios that could still affect the outcome include a sudden health-related medical parole decision, a major shift in bilateral relations prompting Beijing to authorize early release, or an unexpected procedural ruling that shortens the current remand period.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count.
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count.
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Feb 12, 2026, 7:05 PM ET
Volumen
$274,179Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 12, 2026, 7:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count.
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Jimmy Lai remains in detention in Hong Kong under the national security law, where his trial on charges of collusion with foreign forces has proceeded in extended phases without any scheduled resolution before late June. The 98.5% implied probability against release by June 30 reflects the structural constraints of the judicial timeline, prior court decisions denying bail, and the absence of executive intervention or diplomatic breakthroughs that would alter custody status. Historical patterns for similar national security cases show sentences measured in years rather than months. Scenarios that could still affect the outcome include a sudden health-related medical parole decision, a major shift in bilateral relations prompting Beijing to authorize early release, or an unexpected procedural ruling that shortens the current remand period.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count.
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count.
Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$274,179Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 12, 2026, 7:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Jimmy Lai remains in detention in Hong Kong under the national security law, where his trial on charges of collusion with foreign forces has proceeded in extended phases without any scheduled resolution before late June. The 98.5% implied probability against release by June 30 reflects the structural constraints of the judicial timeline, prior court decisions denying bail, and the absence of executive intervention or diplomatic breakthroughs that would alter custody status. Historical patterns for similar national security cases show sentences measured in years rather than months. Scenarios that could still affect the outcome include a sudden health-related medical parole decision, a major shift in bilateral relations prompting Beijing to authorize early release, or an unexpected procedural ruling that shortens the current remand period.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes