**Traders assign an 82.5% implied probability that Friedrich Merz remains Chancellor through the end of 2026, reflecting the structural and political barriers to an early exit despite his coalition’s unpopularity.** Merz took office in May 2025 at the head of a CDU/CSU–SPD grand coalition that holds a slim Bundestag majority. Low approval ratings (15–19% satisfaction in spring 2026 polls) and AfD leads in national surveys have fueled speculation about internal CDU pressure for a leadership change, yet no formal challenge or replacement process has advanced. Coalition partners continue to signal commitment to the current arrangement rather than trigger a snap election that could strengthen the far-right opposition behind the established firewall. Recent cabinet agreements on 2027 budget fundamentals and health-system reforms demonstrate ongoing functionality, while constitutional rules require either the chancellor’s cooperation or specific procedural steps for removal—neither of which appears imminent. With the next regular election scheduled for 2029 and roughly six months remaining until the start of 2027, the absence of a decisive catalyst supports the prevailing trader consensus that Merz will still hold office at that date.