**Ongoing regional containment of the Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in May 2026, underpins the market’s strong “No” consensus.** As of mid-October, the outbreak has produced over 9,000 confirmed cases and roughly 4,500 deaths, primarily in Ituri and North Kivu provinces, with limited exported cases in Kenya and Nigeria showing no sustained community transmission. Official surveillance from WHO and ECDC reports no evidence of a novel pathogen achieving widespread global human-to-human spread. Other monitored threats, including seasonal respiratory viruses, dengue, and West Nile virus, remain below pandemic thresholds. With only two months remaining and contact-tracing and border measures in place, the probability of a new pandemic declaration before year-end is low; the main variables that could still shift odds are rapid geographic expansion of Ebola or emergence of sustained human transmission from avian influenza or another zoonotic strain.