Traders assign the highest implied probability to fewer than five Starship launches reaching space in 2026 because the vehicle remains in an extended flight-test phase. The upcoming debut of Starship Version 3 on May 19 introduces redesigned Raptor 3 engines and a new launch pad, yet each integrated flight test still requires lengthy FAA reviews and incremental hardware validation. Historical cadence shows only eleven prior flights spread across multiple years, with frequent delays from static-fire anomalies, booster recovery issues, and environmental permitting. While SpaceX aims to accelerate toward orbital refueling demonstrations and Starlink V3 deployments later in the year, traders view aggressive ramp-up targets as unrealistic given typical aerospace timelines and the need for repeated successful landings before high-volume operations begin.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos lanzamientos de SpaceX Starship llegarán al espacio en 2026?
¿Cuántos lanzamientos de SpaceX Starship llegarán al espacio en 2026?
<5 59%
5-6 32%
7-8 5.2%
9-10 2.4%
$449,593 Vol.
$449,593 Vol.
31 dic 2026
<5
59%
5-6
27%
7-8
5%
9-10
2%
11-12
2%
13-14
1%
15-16
2%
>16
2%
<5 59%
5-6 32%
7-8 5.2%
9-10 2.4%
$449,593 Vol.
$449,593 Vol.
31 dic 2026
<5
$90,504 Vol.
59%
5-6
$108,316 Vol.
27%
7-8
$152,148 Vol.
5%
9-10
$55,882 Vol.
2%
11-12
$3,765 Vol.
2%
13-14
$4,747 Vol.
1%
15-16
$25,181 Vol.
2%
>16
$9,048 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign the highest implied probability to fewer than five Starship launches reaching space in 2026 because the vehicle remains in an extended flight-test phase. The upcoming debut of Starship Version 3 on May 19 introduces redesigned Raptor 3 engines and a new launch pad, yet each integrated flight test still requires lengthy FAA reviews and incremental hardware validation. Historical cadence shows only eleven prior flights spread across multiple years, with frequent delays from static-fire anomalies, booster recovery issues, and environmental permitting. While SpaceX aims to accelerate toward orbital refueling demonstrations and Starlink V3 deployments later in the year, traders view aggressive ramp-up targets as unrealistic given typical aerospace timelines and the need for repeated successful landings before high-volume operations begin.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Volumen
$449,593Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign the highest implied probability to fewer than five Starship launches reaching space in 2026 because the vehicle remains in an extended flight-test phase. The upcoming debut of Starship Version 3 on May 19 introduces redesigned Raptor 3 engines and a new launch pad, yet each integrated flight test still requires lengthy FAA reviews and incremental hardware validation. Historical cadence shows only eleven prior flights spread across multiple years, with frequent delays from static-fire anomalies, booster recovery issues, and environmental permitting. While SpaceX aims to accelerate toward orbital refueling demonstrations and Starlink V3 deployments later in the year, traders view aggressive ramp-up targets as unrealistic given typical aerospace timelines and the need for repeated successful landings before high-volume operations begin.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$449,593Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders assign the highest implied probability to fewer than five Starship launches reaching space in 2026 because the vehicle remains in an extended flight-test phase. The upcoming debut of Starship Version 3 on May 19 introduces redesigned Raptor 3 engines and a new launch pad, yet each integrated flight test still requires lengthy FAA reviews and incremental hardware validation. Historical cadence shows only eleven prior flights spread across multiple years, with frequent delays from static-fire anomalies, booster recovery issues, and environmental permitting. While SpaceX aims to accelerate toward orbital refueling demonstrations and Starlink V3 deployments later in the year, traders view aggressive ramp-up targets as unrealistic given typical aerospace timelines and the need for repeated successful landings before high-volume operations begin.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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