As of mid-May 2026, SpaceX's Falcon 9 launch cadence exceeds 12 missions per month, with over 50 orbital attempts completed from pads at Cape Canaveral, Vandenberg, and Starbase—driven by rapid booster reusability (many on 20+ flights) and high-volume Starlink V3 deployments of 20-23 satellites per ride. This operational tempo, boasting near-100% success rates, underpins trader consensus favoring 140-179 total launches, as implied probabilities cluster tightly around 150-170 amid steady demand from commercial and national security payloads. The 140-159 bin leads due to potential pad turnaround limits and supply chain constraints on Starlink production, while 160+ hinges on Starship Version 3 scaling (FAA-approved for 44 flights/year), with its May debut test and orbital refueling trials as key differentiators; fresh model runs and license updates could shift odds further.