NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies Sentry system confirms zero known near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of releasing 1 megaton of impact energy in 2026, anchoring trader consensus at 96.9 percent for “No.” Objects roughly 25–40 meters across produce airbursts comparable to the 2013 Chelyabinsk event yet occur only once every several decades on average; ongoing optical surveys by Pan-STARRS and Catalina have catalogued all sizable candidates well in advance, with half the year elapsed and no qualifying detections. The sole realistic pathway to a market shift remains the late discovery of an undetected sub-30-meter bolide, though expanding infrared capabilities continue to narrow that residual uncertainty before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Golpe de meteoro de 1 megatón en 2026?
¿Golpe de meteoro de 1 megatón en 2026?
Sí
$106,030 Vol.
$106,030 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$106,030 Vol.
$106,030 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies Sentry system confirms zero known near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of releasing 1 megaton of impact energy in 2026, anchoring trader consensus at 96.9 percent for “No.” Objects roughly 25–40 meters across produce airbursts comparable to the 2013 Chelyabinsk event yet occur only once every several decades on average; ongoing optical surveys by Pan-STARRS and Catalina have catalogued all sizable candidates well in advance, with half the year elapsed and no qualifying detections. The sole realistic pathway to a market shift remains the late discovery of an undetected sub-30-meter bolide, though expanding infrared capabilities continue to narrow that residual uncertainty before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercado abierto: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volumen
$106,030Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies Sentry system confirms zero known near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of releasing 1 megaton of impact energy in 2026, anchoring trader consensus at 96.9 percent for “No.” Objects roughly 25–40 meters across produce airbursts comparable to the 2013 Chelyabinsk event yet occur only once every several decades on average; ongoing optical surveys by Pan-STARRS and Catalina have catalogued all sizable candidates well in advance, with half the year elapsed and no qualifying detections. The sole realistic pathway to a market shift remains the late discovery of an undetected sub-30-meter bolide, though expanding infrared capabilities continue to narrow that residual uncertainty before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volumen
$106,030Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies Sentry system confirms zero known near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of releasing 1 megaton of impact energy in 2026, anchoring trader consensus at 96.9 percent for “No.” Objects roughly 25–40 meters across produce airbursts comparable to the 2013 Chelyabinsk event yet occur only once every several decades on average; ongoing optical surveys by Pan-STARRS and Catalina have catalogued all sizable candidates well in advance, with half the year elapsed and no qualifying detections. The sole realistic pathway to a market shift remains the late discovery of an undetected sub-30-meter bolide, though expanding infrared capabilities continue to narrow that residual uncertainty before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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