NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and the Sentry monitoring system have identified no near-Earth objects (NEOs) on collision courses capable of producing a 1-megaton airburst in 2026, driving the 98.5% market-implied probability for “No.” Continuous optical surveys detect objects 30–50 meters or larger months or years ahead, and current risk lists show only negligible probabilities for far smaller bodies or distant future dates. Historical bolide data confirm megaton-scale events occur far less than once per century on average, with recent detections limited to house-sized or smaller meteoroids. A realistic but low-probability shift could arise from an undetected long-period comet or a sudden orbital perturbation, though ongoing observations through year-end make such surprises improbable before resolution.