Recent USGS monitoring of global seismic activity shows a steady background rate of one magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake per week on average, placing that outcome at the center of trader consensus. No major aftershock sequences, subduction-zone clusters, or foreshock swarms have appeared in the current seven-day window, keeping the probability of zero or multiple events low. Model runs and historical analogs indicate that isolated events in tectonically active regions remain the most common pattern, with any shift likely tied to updated magnitude reports or new epicenter confirmations before the period closes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?
1 87%
2 14%
3 3.5%
0 <1%
$49,313 Vol.
$49,313 Vol.
17 may 2026
0
1%
1
82%
2
14%
3
3%
4
<1%
5
<1%
>5
<1%
1 87%
2 14%
3 3.5%
0 <1%
$49,313 Vol.
$49,313 Vol.
17 may 2026
0
$33,430 Vol.
1%
1
$4,840 Vol.
82%
2
$2,722 Vol.
14%
3
$1,878 Vol.
3%
4
$3,435 Vol.
<1%
5
$1,420 Vol.
<1%
>5
$1,588 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Recent USGS monitoring of global seismic activity shows a steady background rate of one magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake per week on average, placing that outcome at the center of trader consensus. No major aftershock sequences, subduction-zone clusters, or foreshock swarms have appeared in the current seven-day window, keeping the probability of zero or multiple events low. Model runs and historical analogs indicate that isolated events in tectonically active regions remain the most common pattern, with any shift likely tied to updated magnitude reports or new epicenter confirmations before the period closes.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercado abierto: May 9, 2026, 10:50 AM ET
Volumen
$49,313Fecha de finalización
17 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 9, 2026, 10:50 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Recent USGS monitoring of global seismic activity shows a steady background rate of one magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake per week on average, placing that outcome at the center of trader consensus. No major aftershock sequences, subduction-zone clusters, or foreshock swarms have appeared in the current seven-day window, keeping the probability of zero or multiple events low. Model runs and historical analogs indicate that isolated events in tectonically active regions remain the most common pattern, with any shift likely tied to updated magnitude reports or new epicenter confirmations before the period closes.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volumen
$49,313Fecha de finalización
17 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 9, 2026, 10:50 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent USGS monitoring of global seismic activity shows a steady background rate of one magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake per week on average, placing that outcome at the center of trader consensus. No major aftershock sequences, subduction-zone clusters, or foreshock swarms have appeared in the current seven-day window, keeping the probability of zero or multiple events low. Model runs and historical analogs indicate that isolated events in tectonically active regions remain the most common pattern, with any shift likely tied to updated magnitude reports or new epicenter confirmations before the period closes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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