With roughly 10 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes recorded globally through mid-August 2026 per USGS data, activity tracks the long-term average of about 15 events annually. Recent M7.7 and M7.4 shocks along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones in Indonesia and Colombia illustrate ongoing strain release at convergent plate boundaries. Year-to-year variability stems from aftershock sequences and episodic tectonic slip rather than any sustained trend, leaving the closely matched 14–16 and 17–19 bins as trader consensus while underscoring uncertainty over whether remaining 2026 seismicity will stay near baseline or produce additional clusters.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos terremotos de 7.0 o más en 2026?
¿Cuántos terremotos de 7.0 o más en 2026?
14–16 39%
17–19 35%
20+ 15.9%
11–13 14%
$1,373,031 Vol.
$1,373,031 Vol.
31 dic 2026
8–10
1%
11–13
14%
14–16
39%
17–19
35%
20+
16%
14–16 39%
17–19 35%
20+ 15.9%
11–13 14%
$1,373,031 Vol.
$1,373,031 Vol.
31 dic 2026
8–10
$146,524 Vol.
1%
11–13
$415,217 Vol.
14%
14–16
$187,957 Vol.
39%
17–19
$212,534 Vol.
35%
20+
$66,766 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.With roughly 10 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes recorded globally through mid-August 2026 per USGS data, activity tracks the long-term average of about 15 events annually. Recent M7.7 and M7.4 shocks along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones in Indonesia and Colombia illustrate ongoing strain release at convergent plate boundaries. Year-to-year variability stems from aftershock sequences and episodic tectonic slip rather than any sustained trend, leaving the closely matched 14–16 and 17–19 bins as trader consensus while underscoring uncertainty over whether remaining 2026 seismicity will stay near baseline or produce additional clusters.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ET
Volumen
$1,373,031Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.With roughly 10 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes recorded globally through mid-August 2026 per USGS data, activity tracks the long-term average of about 15 events annually. Recent M7.7 and M7.4 shocks along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones in Indonesia and Colombia illustrate ongoing strain release at convergent plate boundaries. Year-to-year variability stems from aftershock sequences and episodic tectonic slip rather than any sustained trend, leaving the closely matched 14–16 and 17–19 bins as trader consensus while underscoring uncertainty over whether remaining 2026 seismicity will stay near baseline or produce additional clusters.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volumen
$1,373,031Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...With roughly 10 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes recorded globally through mid-August 2026 per USGS data, activity tracks the long-term average of about 15 events annually. Recent M7.7 and M7.4 shocks along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones in Indonesia and Colombia illustrate ongoing strain release at convergent plate boundaries. Year-to-year variability stems from aftershock sequences and episodic tectonic slip rather than any sustained trend, leaving the closely matched 14–16 and 17–19 bins as trader consensus while underscoring uncertainty over whether remaining 2026 seismicity will stay near baseline or produce additional clusters.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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