Five confirmed magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes through mid-May 2026, concentrated along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones in Tonga, Vanuatu, Indonesia, Japan, and Malaysia, have kept trader consensus aligned with the long-term USGS average of roughly 16 such events annually. A three-week lull since late April has introduced uncertainty, as global seismicity follows a Poisson process with high year-to-year variability driven by stress accumulation and release on major faults. This positions the 14–16 range as the slight favorite while sustaining close probabilities for 11–13 and 17–19 outcomes, pending updated USGS catalogs and any renewed activity in the remaining seven months.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos terremotos de 7.0 o más en 2026?
¿Cuántos terremotos de 7.0 o más en 2026?
14–16 31%
11–13 26%
17–19 21%
20+ 9.7%
$1,305,255 Vol.
$1,305,255 Vol.
31 dic 2026
5–7
2%
8–10
9%
11–13
26%
14–16
31%
17–19
21%
20+
10%
14–16 31%
11–13 26%
17–19 21%
20+ 9.7%
$1,305,255 Vol.
$1,305,255 Vol.
31 dic 2026
5–7
$70,068 Vol.
2%
8–10
$129,551 Vol.
9%
11–13
$410,431 Vol.
26%
14–16
$183,942 Vol.
31%
17–19
$206,159 Vol.
21%
20+
$62,166 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Five confirmed magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes through mid-May 2026, concentrated along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones in Tonga, Vanuatu, Indonesia, Japan, and Malaysia, have kept trader consensus aligned with the long-term USGS average of roughly 16 such events annually. A three-week lull since late April has introduced uncertainty, as global seismicity follows a Poisson process with high year-to-year variability driven by stress accumulation and release on major faults. This positions the 14–16 range as the slight favorite while sustaining close probabilities for 11–13 and 17–19 outcomes, pending updated USGS catalogs and any renewed activity in the remaining seven months.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ET
Volumen
$1,305,255Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Five confirmed magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes through mid-May 2026, concentrated along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones in Tonga, Vanuatu, Indonesia, Japan, and Malaysia, have kept trader consensus aligned with the long-term USGS average of roughly 16 such events annually. A three-week lull since late April has introduced uncertainty, as global seismicity follows a Poisson process with high year-to-year variability driven by stress accumulation and release on major faults. This positions the 14–16 range as the slight favorite while sustaining close probabilities for 11–13 and 17–19 outcomes, pending updated USGS catalogs and any renewed activity in the remaining seven months.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volumen
$1,305,255Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Five confirmed magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes through mid-May 2026, concentrated along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones in Tonga, Vanuatu, Indonesia, Japan, and Malaysia, have kept trader consensus aligned with the long-term USGS average of roughly 16 such events annually. A three-week lull since late April has introduced uncertainty, as global seismicity follows a Poisson process with high year-to-year variability driven by stress accumulation and release on major faults. This positions the 14–16 range as the slight favorite while sustaining close probabilities for 11–13 and 17–19 outcomes, pending updated USGS catalogs and any renewed activity in the remaining seven months.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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