Recent post-heatwave cooling across northern France, driven by a shift to northwesterly flow and increased cloud cover after mid-August peaks near 36–38 °C, has anchored ensemble forecasts for Paris maximum temperature on 17 August around 28–29 °C. Official guidance from Météo-France and global models shows daytime highs stabilizing near this range under partly cloudy skies with light winds, consistent with late-summer climatology where daily maxima average 24–27 °C but can reach the upper 20s during transitional periods. Minor model spread and timing of any residual warm advection create the tight clustering at 28 °C and 29 °C, while probabilities for 30 °C or higher remain low absent renewed high-pressure reinforcement. Updated model runs and Météo-France briefings on the morning of the 17th will provide the final observational constraints for market resolution.