Strong El Niño conditions, with high vertical wind shear and drier air across the Main Development Region, are suppressing the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which NOAA’s August update forecasts as below normal (75% probability) with only 0–2 major hurricanes expected overall. As of late August, the basin has produced just four tropical storms and zero hurricanes, well below climatology, and model consensus points to limited intensification potential for any late-season systems. Historical data during strong El Niño events show markedly reduced U.S. major-hurricane landfalls, with Category 4 thresholds (130+ mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) especially rare. Trader consensus at 82.5% “No” aggregates these seasonal constraints plus the narrow remaining window before 2027, while noting that short-term steering patterns could still allow an outlier event.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Algún huracán de categoría 4 tocará tierra en los EE. UU. antes de 2027?
¿Algún huracán de categoría 4 tocará tierra en los EE. UU. antes de 2027?
Sí
18% probabilidad
$340,988 Vol.
$340,988 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
18% probabilidad
$340,988 Vol.
$340,988 Vol.
31 dic 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Strong El Niño conditions, with high vertical wind shear and drier air across the Main Development Region, are suppressing the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which NOAA’s August update forecasts as below normal (75% probability) with only 0–2 major hurricanes expected overall. As of late August, the basin has produced just four tropical storms and zero hurricanes, well below climatology, and model consensus points to limited intensification potential for any late-season systems. Historical data during strong El Niño events show markedly reduced U.S. major-hurricane landfalls, with Category 4 thresholds (130+ mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) especially rare. Trader consensus at 82.5% “No” aggregates these seasonal constraints plus the narrow remaining window before 2027, while noting that short-term steering patterns could still allow an outlier event.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Mercado abierto: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volumen
$340,988Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Strong El Niño conditions, with high vertical wind shear and drier air across the Main Development Region, are suppressing the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which NOAA’s August update forecasts as below normal (75% probability) with only 0–2 major hurricanes expected overall. As of late August, the basin has produced just four tropical storms and zero hurricanes, well below climatology, and model consensus points to limited intensification potential for any late-season systems. Historical data during strong El Niño events show markedly reduced U.S. major-hurricane landfalls, with Category 4 thresholds (130+ mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) especially rare. Trader consensus at 82.5% “No” aggregates these seasonal constraints plus the narrow remaining window before 2027, while noting that short-term steering patterns could still allow an outlier event.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volumen
$340,988Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong El Niño conditions, with high vertical wind shear and drier air across the Main Development Region, are suppressing the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which NOAA’s August update forecasts as below normal (75% probability) with only 0–2 major hurricanes expected overall. As of late August, the basin has produced just four tropical storms and zero hurricanes, well below climatology, and model consensus points to limited intensification potential for any late-season systems. Historical data during strong El Niño events show markedly reduced U.S. major-hurricane landfalls, with Category 4 thresholds (130+ mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) especially rare. Trader consensus at 82.5% “No” aggregates these seasonal constraints plus the narrow remaining window before 2027, while noting that short-term steering patterns could still allow an outlier event.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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