Below-normal activity dominates the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with NOAA forecasting a 75% chance of below-average totals and only 0–2 major hurricanes expected amid moderate-to-strong El Niño conditions that enhance vertical wind shear and suppress intensification. Colorado State University’s latest update similarly projects just one major hurricane basin-wide and assigns the continental U.S. coastline only a 16% probability of at least one Category 3–5 landfall after August. Early-season activity has produced just three weak tropical storms with no hurricanes forming so far, consistent with cooler sea-surface temperatures and unfavorable steering patterns. These factors, combined with the rarity of Category 4+ U.S. landfalls even in active years, underpin trader consensus favoring no such event before 2027. Updated model runs and peak-season forecasts in early September remain the key near-term catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Algún huracán de categoría 4 tocará tierra en los EE. UU. antes de 2027?
¿Algún huracán de categoría 4 tocará tierra en los EE. UU. antes de 2027?
Sí
16% probabilidad
$340,142 Vol.
$340,142 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
16% probabilidad
$340,142 Vol.
$340,142 Vol.
31 dic 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Below-normal activity dominates the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with NOAA forecasting a 75% chance of below-average totals and only 0–2 major hurricanes expected amid moderate-to-strong El Niño conditions that enhance vertical wind shear and suppress intensification. Colorado State University’s latest update similarly projects just one major hurricane basin-wide and assigns the continental U.S. coastline only a 16% probability of at least one Category 3–5 landfall after August. Early-season activity has produced just three weak tropical storms with no hurricanes forming so far, consistent with cooler sea-surface temperatures and unfavorable steering patterns. These factors, combined with the rarity of Category 4+ U.S. landfalls even in active years, underpin trader consensus favoring no such event before 2027. Updated model runs and peak-season forecasts in early September remain the key near-term catalysts.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Mercado abierto: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volumen
$340,142Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Below-normal activity dominates the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with NOAA forecasting a 75% chance of below-average totals and only 0–2 major hurricanes expected amid moderate-to-strong El Niño conditions that enhance vertical wind shear and suppress intensification. Colorado State University’s latest update similarly projects just one major hurricane basin-wide and assigns the continental U.S. coastline only a 16% probability of at least one Category 3–5 landfall after August. Early-season activity has produced just three weak tropical storms with no hurricanes forming so far, consistent with cooler sea-surface temperatures and unfavorable steering patterns. These factors, combined with the rarity of Category 4+ U.S. landfalls even in active years, underpin trader consensus favoring no such event before 2027. Updated model runs and peak-season forecasts in early September remain the key near-term catalysts.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volumen
$340,142Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Below-normal activity dominates the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with NOAA forecasting a 75% chance of below-average totals and only 0–2 major hurricanes expected amid moderate-to-strong El Niño conditions that enhance vertical wind shear and suppress intensification. Colorado State University’s latest update similarly projects just one major hurricane basin-wide and assigns the continental U.S. coastline only a 16% probability of at least one Category 3–5 landfall after August. Early-season activity has produced just three weak tropical storms with no hurricanes forming so far, consistent with cooler sea-surface temperatures and unfavorable steering patterns. These factors, combined with the rarity of Category 4+ U.S. landfalls even in active years, underpin trader consensus favoring no such event before 2027. Updated model runs and peak-season forecasts in early September remain the key near-term catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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