Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 61% implied probability to no Category 4 hurricane—defined by sustained winds of 130 mph or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making U.S. landfall before 2027, driven by the absence of such events since Hurricane Ian in 2022 and zero U.S. hurricane landfalls during the entire 2025 season despite three Category 5 storms forming offshore. Forecasts from Colorado State University and The Weather Company project below- or near-normal 2026 Atlantic activity, with 12 named storms and six hurricanes anticipated, attributing reduced intensification risk to emerging El Niño conditions fostering upper-level wind shear. NOAA's seasonal outlook, due May 21, and early-season monitoring by the National Hurricane Center will provide critical updates; historically, continental U.S. Category 4 landfalls average less than once every three years amid common rapid weakening from coastal friction.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Algún huracán de categoría 4 tocará tierra en los EE. UU. antes de 2027?
¿Algún huracán de categoría 4 tocará tierra en los EE. UU. antes de 2027?
Sí
$327,270 Vol.
$327,270 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$327,270 Vol.
$327,270 Vol.
31 dic 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 61% implied probability to no Category 4 hurricane—defined by sustained winds of 130 mph or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making U.S. landfall before 2027, driven by the absence of such events since Hurricane Ian in 2022 and zero U.S. hurricane landfalls during the entire 2025 season despite three Category 5 storms forming offshore. Forecasts from Colorado State University and The Weather Company project below- or near-normal 2026 Atlantic activity, with 12 named storms and six hurricanes anticipated, attributing reduced intensification risk to emerging El Niño conditions fostering upper-level wind shear. NOAA's seasonal outlook, due May 21, and early-season monitoring by the National Hurricane Center will provide critical updates; historically, continental U.S. Category 4 landfalls average less than once every three years amid common rapid weakening from coastal friction.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Mercado abierto: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volumen
$327,270Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 61% implied probability to no Category 4 hurricane—defined by sustained winds of 130 mph or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making U.S. landfall before 2027, driven by the absence of such events since Hurricane Ian in 2022 and zero U.S. hurricane landfalls during the entire 2025 season despite three Category 5 storms forming offshore. Forecasts from Colorado State University and The Weather Company project below- or near-normal 2026 Atlantic activity, with 12 named storms and six hurricanes anticipated, attributing reduced intensification risk to emerging El Niño conditions fostering upper-level wind shear. NOAA's seasonal outlook, due May 21, and early-season monitoring by the National Hurricane Center will provide critical updates; historically, continental U.S. Category 4 landfalls average less than once every three years amid common rapid weakening from coastal friction.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volumen
$327,270Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 61% implied probability to no Category 4 hurricane—defined by sustained winds of 130 mph or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale—making U.S. landfall before 2027, driven by the absence of such events since Hurricane Ian in 2022 and zero U.S. hurricane landfalls during the entire 2025 season despite three Category 5 storms forming offshore. Forecasts from Colorado State University and The Weather Company project below- or near-normal 2026 Atlantic activity, with 12 named storms and six hurricanes anticipated, attributing reduced intensification risk to emerging El Niño conditions fostering upper-level wind shear. NOAA's seasonal outlook, due May 21, and early-season monitoring by the National Hurricane Center will provide critical updates; historically, continental U.S. Category 4 landfalls average less than once every three years amid common rapid weakening from coastal friction.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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