Recent UNEP Emissions Gap Report findings and updated carbon budget assessments showing a remaining 1.5°C budget of roughly 130 GtCO2 at the start of 2026 have accelerated expectations for revisions to the Climate Clock's deadline calculation. The clock, which draws from Mercator Research Institute data and IPCC-derived budgets while assuming steady annual emissions around 42 GtCO2, has historically incorporated new peer-reviewed estimates or emission trends on an annual or as-needed basis. With multi-decadal temperature projections now pointing to an earlier breach and ongoing global emissions data releases expected through late 2026, traders see moderate likelihood of an update to the displayed timeline before year-end. Model consensus on emission trajectories and any 2026 IPCC-aligned revisions remain key variables that could shift the exact timing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cambiará la fecha límite de 1,5° C del Reloj Climático en...?
¿Cambiará la fecha límite de 1,5° C del Reloj Climático en...?
40% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 ene 2027
40% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 ene 2027
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.Recent UNEP Emissions Gap Report findings and updated carbon budget assessments showing a remaining 1.5°C budget of roughly 130 GtCO2 at the start of 2026 have accelerated expectations for revisions to the Climate Clock's deadline calculation. The clock, which draws from Mercator Research Institute data and IPCC-derived budgets while assuming steady annual emissions around 42 GtCO2, has historically incorporated new peer-reviewed estimates or emission trends on an annual or as-needed basis. With multi-decadal temperature projections now pointing to an earlier breach and ongoing global emissions data releases expected through late 2026, traders see moderate likelihood of an update to the displayed timeline before year-end. Model consensus on emission trajectories and any 2026 IPCC-aligned revisions remain key variables that could shift the exact timing.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Mercado abierto: Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ET
Volumen
$695Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2029Mercado abierto
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://climateclock.worldResolver
0x65070BE91...Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.Recent UNEP Emissions Gap Report findings and updated carbon budget assessments showing a remaining 1.5°C budget of roughly 130 GtCO2 at the start of 2026 have accelerated expectations for revisions to the Climate Clock's deadline calculation. The clock, which draws from Mercator Research Institute data and IPCC-derived budgets while assuming steady annual emissions around 42 GtCO2, has historically incorporated new peer-reviewed estimates or emission trends on an annual or as-needed basis. With multi-decadal temperature projections now pointing to an earlier breach and ongoing global emissions data releases expected through late 2026, traders see moderate likelihood of an update to the displayed timeline before year-end. Model consensus on emission trajectories and any 2026 IPCC-aligned revisions remain key variables that could shift the exact timing.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Volumen
$695Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://climateclock.worldResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent UNEP Emissions Gap Report findings and updated carbon budget assessments showing a remaining 1.5°C budget of roughly 130 GtCO2 at the start of 2026 have accelerated expectations for revisions to the Climate Clock's deadline calculation. The clock, which draws from Mercator Research Institute data and IPCC-derived budgets while assuming steady annual emissions around 42 GtCO2, has historically incorporated new peer-reviewed estimates or emission trends on an annual or as-needed basis. With multi-decadal temperature projections now pointing to an earlier breach and ongoing global emissions data releases expected through late 2026, traders see moderate likelihood of an update to the displayed timeline before year-end. Model consensus on emission trajectories and any 2026 IPCC-aligned revisions remain key variables that could shift the exact timing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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