Record-low Arctic sea ice conditions entering the 2026 melt season are driving trader consensus toward a minimum below 4 million square kilometers at 57.5% implied probability. The winter maximum reached just 14.29 million square kilometers in mid-March, tying the satellite-era low and leaving thin, low-volume ice—PIOMAS estimates near 18,500 cubic kilometers in April—highly susceptible to rapid summer loss. Persistent record-low extents through early May and an emerging El Niño pattern, which NOAA forecasts with high likelihood by late summer, amplify melt via warmer air and ocean temperatures. These factors build on the long-term 12% per decade decline in September extent. Model updates from the Sea Ice Prediction Network in June will refine projections amid typical weather uncertainties.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Extensión mínima del hielo marino del Ártico este verano?
¿Extensión mínima del hielo marino del Ártico este verano?
<4 millones km² 57%
4,0-4,2 millones km² 13.0%
4,2-4,4 millones de km² 12.4%
4.4-4.6 millones de km² 8.8%
$48,529 Vol.
$48,529 Vol.
1 oct 2026
<4 millones km²
57%
4,0-4,2 millones km²
13%
4,2-4,4 millones de km²
12%
4.4-4.6 millones de km²
9%
4,6-4,8 millones de km²
6%
4.8-5 millones de km²
2%
5+ millones de km²
2%
<4 millones km² 57%
4,0-4,2 millones km² 13.0%
4,2-4,4 millones de km² 12.4%
4.4-4.6 millones de km² 8.8%
$48,529 Vol.
$48,529 Vol.
1 oct 2026
<4 millones km²
$25,113 Vol.
57%
4,0-4,2 millones km²
$3,380 Vol.
13%
4,2-4,4 millones de km²
$1,313 Vol.
12%
4.4-4.6 millones de km²
$1,381 Vol.
9%
4,6-4,8 millones de km²
$2,948 Vol.
6%
4.8-5 millones de km²
$1,199 Vol.
2%
5+ millones de km²
$13,195 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record-low Arctic sea ice conditions entering the 2026 melt season are driving trader consensus toward a minimum below 4 million square kilometers at 57.5% implied probability. The winter maximum reached just 14.29 million square kilometers in mid-March, tying the satellite-era low and leaving thin, low-volume ice—PIOMAS estimates near 18,500 cubic kilometers in April—highly susceptible to rapid summer loss. Persistent record-low extents through early May and an emerging El Niño pattern, which NOAA forecasts with high likelihood by late summer, amplify melt via warmer air and ocean temperatures. These factors build on the long-term 12% per decade decline in September extent. Model updates from the Sea Ice Prediction Network in June will refine projections amid typical weather uncertainties.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Mercado abierto: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volumen
$48,529Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record-low Arctic sea ice conditions entering the 2026 melt season are driving trader consensus toward a minimum below 4 million square kilometers at 57.5% implied probability. The winter maximum reached just 14.29 million square kilometers in mid-March, tying the satellite-era low and leaving thin, low-volume ice—PIOMAS estimates near 18,500 cubic kilometers in April—highly susceptible to rapid summer loss. Persistent record-low extents through early May and an emerging El Niño pattern, which NOAA forecasts with high likelihood by late summer, amplify melt via warmer air and ocean temperatures. These factors build on the long-term 12% per decade decline in September extent. Model updates from the Sea Ice Prediction Network in June will refine projections amid typical weather uncertainties.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volumen
$48,529Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Record-low Arctic sea ice conditions entering the 2026 melt season are driving trader consensus toward a minimum below 4 million square kilometers at 57.5% implied probability. The winter maximum reached just 14.29 million square kilometers in mid-March, tying the satellite-era low and leaving thin, low-volume ice—PIOMAS estimates near 18,500 cubic kilometers in April—highly susceptible to rapid summer loss. Persistent record-low extents through early May and an emerging El Niño pattern, which NOAA forecasts with high likelihood by late summer, amplify melt via warmer air and ocean temperatures. These factors build on the long-term 12% per decade decline in September extent. Model updates from the Sea Ice Prediction Network in June will refine projections amid typical weather uncertainties.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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