Record-low winter maximum extent in March 2026 at 14.29 million square kilometers has given the melt season an early start, consistent with the long-term downward trend of about 12% per decade in September minima driven by Arctic amplification. Current early-August extents near 7 million square kilometers remain among the lower values in the satellite record, while model outlooks and statistical projections center the September minimum near 4.5 million square kilometers. Summer weather patterns, including high-pressure systems promoting clear skies and warm air advection, remain the dominant variable that could shift the outcome within the narrow 4.4–4.8 million square kilometer range favored by current trader positioning. Updated forecast model runs through mid-August will provide the next key signals.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Extensión mínima del hielo marino del Ártico este verano?
¿Extensión mínima del hielo marino del Ártico este verano?
4.4-4.6 millones de km² 36.8%
4,6-4,8 millones de km² 28.6%
4,2-4,4 millones de km² 15.3%
<4 millones km² 13%
$67,193 Vol.
$67,193 Vol.
1 oct 2026
<4 millones km²
13%
4,0-4,2 millones km²
13%
4,2-4,4 millones de km²
15%
4.4-4.6 millones de km²
37%
4,6-4,8 millones de km²
29%
4.8-5 millones de km²
3%
5+ millones de km²
7%
4.4-4.6 millones de km² 36.8%
4,6-4,8 millones de km² 28.6%
4,2-4,4 millones de km² 15.3%
<4 millones km² 13%
$67,193 Vol.
$67,193 Vol.
1 oct 2026
<4 millones km²
$30,436 Vol.
13%
4,0-4,2 millones km²
$6,551 Vol.
13%
4,2-4,4 millones de km²
$2,920 Vol.
15%
4.4-4.6 millones de km²
$3,128 Vol.
37%
4,6-4,8 millones de km²
$6,805 Vol.
29%
4.8-5 millones de km²
$2,898 Vol.
3%
5+ millones de km²
$14,455 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record-low winter maximum extent in March 2026 at 14.29 million square kilometers has given the melt season an early start, consistent with the long-term downward trend of about 12% per decade in September minima driven by Arctic amplification. Current early-August extents near 7 million square kilometers remain among the lower values in the satellite record, while model outlooks and statistical projections center the September minimum near 4.5 million square kilometers. Summer weather patterns, including high-pressure systems promoting clear skies and warm air advection, remain the dominant variable that could shift the outcome within the narrow 4.4–4.8 million square kilometer range favored by current trader positioning. Updated forecast model runs through mid-August will provide the next key signals.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Mercado abierto: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volumen
$67,193Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record-low winter maximum extent in March 2026 at 14.29 million square kilometers has given the melt season an early start, consistent with the long-term downward trend of about 12% per decade in September minima driven by Arctic amplification. Current early-August extents near 7 million square kilometers remain among the lower values in the satellite record, while model outlooks and statistical projections center the September minimum near 4.5 million square kilometers. Summer weather patterns, including high-pressure systems promoting clear skies and warm air advection, remain the dominant variable that could shift the outcome within the narrow 4.4–4.8 million square kilometer range favored by current trader positioning. Updated forecast model runs through mid-August will provide the next key signals.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volumen
$67,193Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Record-low winter maximum extent in March 2026 at 14.29 million square kilometers has given the melt season an early start, consistent with the long-term downward trend of about 12% per decade in September minima driven by Arctic amplification. Current early-August extents near 7 million square kilometers remain among the lower values in the satellite record, while model outlooks and statistical projections center the September minimum near 4.5 million square kilometers. Summer weather patterns, including high-pressure systems promoting clear skies and warm air advection, remain the dominant variable that could shift the outcome within the narrow 4.4–4.8 million square kilometer range favored by current trader positioning. Updated forecast model runs through mid-August will provide the next key signals.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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