Global seismic rates from USGS records indicate roughly 1–2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater occur worldwide each week on average, derived from annual totals of about 130 magnitude 6.0–6.9 events plus fewer larger ones. With outcomes for zero or one event nearly tied in trader consensus, sentiment hinges on the Poisson-like randomness of tectonic strain release along major fault zones and subduction regions, absent any clustered aftershock sequences or unusual foreshock activity in current monitoring data. Recent August 2026 events, including the magnitude 7.4 Colombia quake, illustrate how short-term variability can shift probabilities, while model forecasts offer little resolution beyond historical baselines ahead of the August 17–23 window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos terremotos de 6.5 o más del 17 al 23 de agosto?
¿Cuántos terremotos de 6.5 o más del 17 al 23 de agosto?
0 42%
1 37%
2 18%
3 9%
NUEVO
NUEVO
23 ago 2026
0
42%
1
37%
2
18%
3
9%
4
4%
5
4%
>5
1%
0 42%
1 37%
2 18%
3 9%
NUEVO
NUEVO
23 ago 2026
0
$82 Vol.
42%
1
$45 Vol.
37%
2
$84 Vol.
18%
3
$96 Vol.
9%
4
$114 Vol.
4%
5
$64 Vol.
4%
>5
$16 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic rates from USGS records indicate roughly 1–2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater occur worldwide each week on average, derived from annual totals of about 130 magnitude 6.0–6.9 events plus fewer larger ones. With outcomes for zero or one event nearly tied in trader consensus, sentiment hinges on the Poisson-like randomness of tectonic strain release along major fault zones and subduction regions, absent any clustered aftershock sequences or unusual foreshock activity in current monitoring data. Recent August 2026 events, including the magnitude 7.4 Colombia quake, illustrate how short-term variability can shift probabilities, while model forecasts offer little resolution beyond historical baselines ahead of the August 17–23 window.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercado abierto: Aug 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Volumen
$502Fecha de finalización
24 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic rates from USGS records indicate roughly 1–2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater occur worldwide each week on average, derived from annual totals of about 130 magnitude 6.0–6.9 events plus fewer larger ones. With outcomes for zero or one event nearly tied in trader consensus, sentiment hinges on the Poisson-like randomness of tectonic strain release along major fault zones and subduction regions, absent any clustered aftershock sequences or unusual foreshock activity in current monitoring data. Recent August 2026 events, including the magnitude 7.4 Colombia quake, illustrate how short-term variability can shift probabilities, while model forecasts offer little resolution beyond historical baselines ahead of the August 17–23 window.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volumen
$502Fecha de finalización
24 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Global seismic rates from USGS records indicate roughly 1–2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater occur worldwide each week on average, derived from annual totals of about 130 magnitude 6.0–6.9 events plus fewer larger ones. With outcomes for zero or one event nearly tied in trader consensus, sentiment hinges on the Poisson-like randomness of tectonic strain release along major fault zones and subduction regions, absent any clustered aftershock sequences or unusual foreshock activity in current monitoring data. Recent August 2026 events, including the magnitude 7.4 Colombia quake, illustrate how short-term variability can shift probabilities, while model forecasts offer little resolution beyond historical baselines ahead of the August 17–23 window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
¿Habrá exactamente 2 terremotos de magnitud 6.5 o superior en todo el mundo del 10 de agosto al 16 de agosto?
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Sí
¿Habrá 6 o menos terremotos de magnitud 5.5 o superior en todo el mundo entre el 17 y el 23 de agosto?
22%
Sí
¿Habrá más de 13 terremotos de magnitud 5,5 o superior en todo el mundo del 10 al 16 de agosto?
40%
Sí
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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