Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91.5% implied probability to no major volcano eruption—defined as Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6—in 2026, driven by Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records through early May logging 47 confirmed eruptions worldwide, all VEI ≤4, featuring routine effusive activity like Kīlauea’s episodic fountaining rather than explosive buildup. USGS volcano observatories report background seismicity and deformation at high-threat calderas such as Yellowstone, where uplift ceased earlier this year, and no precursory inflation or gas spikes signaling Plinian-scale events, which historically recur globally about once per century (last: Pinatubo, 1991 VEI 6). Realistic challenges include abrupt magma intrusion at systems like Campi Flegrei or Taupō, though dense monitoring networks would detect months of unrest beforehand; weekly GVP updates remain key through year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Erupción volcánica mayor (VEI ≥6) en 2026?
¿Erupción volcánica mayor (VEI ≥6) en 2026?
Sí
$79,911 Vol.
$79,911 Vol.
31 mar 2027
Sí
$79,911 Vol.
$79,911 Vol.
31 mar 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91.5% implied probability to no major volcano eruption—defined as Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6—in 2026, driven by Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records through early May logging 47 confirmed eruptions worldwide, all VEI ≤4, featuring routine effusive activity like Kīlauea’s episodic fountaining rather than explosive buildup. USGS volcano observatories report background seismicity and deformation at high-threat calderas such as Yellowstone, where uplift ceased earlier this year, and no precursory inflation or gas spikes signaling Plinian-scale events, which historically recur globally about once per century (last: Pinatubo, 1991 VEI 6). Realistic challenges include abrupt magma intrusion at systems like Campi Flegrei or Taupō, though dense monitoring networks would detect months of unrest beforehand; weekly GVP updates remain key through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volumen
$79,911Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2027Mercado abierto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91.5% implied probability to no major volcano eruption—defined as Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6—in 2026, driven by Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records through early May logging 47 confirmed eruptions worldwide, all VEI ≤4, featuring routine effusive activity like Kīlauea’s episodic fountaining rather than explosive buildup. USGS volcano observatories report background seismicity and deformation at high-threat calderas such as Yellowstone, where uplift ceased earlier this year, and no precursory inflation or gas spikes signaling Plinian-scale events, which historically recur globally about once per century (last: Pinatubo, 1991 VEI 6). Realistic challenges include abrupt magma intrusion at systems like Campi Flegrei or Taupō, though dense monitoring networks would detect months of unrest beforehand; weekly GVP updates remain key through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Volumen
$79,911Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2027Mercado abierto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91.5% implied probability to no major volcano eruption—defined as Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6—in 2026, driven by Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records through early May logging 47 confirmed eruptions worldwide, all VEI ≤4, featuring routine effusive activity like Kīlauea’s episodic fountaining rather than explosive buildup. USGS volcano observatories report background seismicity and deformation at high-threat calderas such as Yellowstone, where uplift ceased earlier this year, and no precursory inflation or gas spikes signaling Plinian-scale events, which historically recur globally about once per century (last: Pinatubo, 1991 VEI 6). Realistic challenges include abrupt magma intrusion at systems like Campi Flegrei or Taupō, though dense monitoring networks would detect months of unrest beforehand; weekly GVP updates remain key through year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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