Ongoing moderate strombolian and effusive activity at Mount Etna, including June lava flows, July ash plumes reaching aviation red code, and August vent openings with tremor, has kept trader odds near even for a VEI 2+ event by year-end. Current yellow alert status and INGV monitoring indicate sustained but not yet escalated explosivity, with plume heights and ejecta volumes typically aligning with VEI 1. Key uncertainties center on magma supply rates from deep reservoirs and whether renewed fracturing could drive a sustained explosive phase meeting VEI 2 criteria (plume 1–5 km, greater volume). Continuous seismic, gas, and deformation data from INGV through late 2026, plus any escalation in ash emission or lava output, will likely determine resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoEtna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
0% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 dic 2026
0% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Ongoing moderate strombolian and effusive activity at Mount Etna, including June lava flows, July ash plumes reaching aviation red code, and August vent openings with tremor, has kept trader odds near even for a VEI 2+ event by year-end. Current yellow alert status and INGV monitoring indicate sustained but not yet escalated explosivity, with plume heights and ejecta volumes typically aligning with VEI 1. Key uncertainties center on magma supply rates from deep reservoirs and whether renewed fracturing could drive a sustained explosive phase meeting VEI 2 criteria (plume 1–5 km, greater volume). Continuous seismic, gas, and deformation data from INGV through late 2026, plus any escalation in ash emission or lava output, will likely determine resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Mercado abierto: Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
Volumen
$21Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Ongoing moderate strombolian and effusive activity at Mount Etna, including June lava flows, July ash plumes reaching aviation red code, and August vent openings with tremor, has kept trader odds near even for a VEI 2+ event by year-end. Current yellow alert status and INGV monitoring indicate sustained but not yet escalated explosivity, with plume heights and ejecta volumes typically aligning with VEI 1. Key uncertainties center on magma supply rates from deep reservoirs and whether renewed fracturing could drive a sustained explosive phase meeting VEI 2 criteria (plume 1–5 km, greater volume). Continuous seismic, gas, and deformation data from INGV through late 2026, plus any escalation in ash emission or lava output, will likely determine resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Volumen
$21Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing moderate strombolian and effusive activity at Mount Etna, including June lava flows, July ash plumes reaching aviation red code, and August vent openings with tremor, has kept trader odds near even for a VEI 2+ event by year-end. Current yellow alert status and INGV monitoring indicate sustained but not yet escalated explosivity, with plume heights and ejecta volumes typically aligning with VEI 1. Key uncertainties center on magma supply rates from deep reservoirs and whether renewed fracturing could drive a sustained explosive phase meeting VEI 2 criteria (plume 1–5 km, greater volume). Continuous seismic, gas, and deformation data from INGV through late 2026, plus any escalation in ash emission or lava output, will likely determine resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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