Recent global temperature data place 2024 as the record holder at roughly 1.55°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, with 2025 ranking third at about 1.44°C, driven by the tail end of a strong El Niño and accelerating anthropogenic warming. For 2026, official forecasts from the Met Office and Carbon Brief project a central anomaly near 1.46–1.47°C, positioning the year as most likely second-warmest, though James Hansen’s physics-based analysis assigns a higher probability of a new record if late-year El Niño conditions intensify. Current early-2026 observations show temperatures running slightly cooler than 2024’s peak, yet the long-term forcing trend and expected Pacific warming keep a first-place finish plausible. NOAA’s outlook concurs, estimating a 98 percent chance of a top-five ranking. These factors explain why traders assign the strongest odds to second place while still pricing a meaningful chance for first.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Dónde se ubicará 2026 entre los años más calurosos registrados?
¿Dónde se ubicará 2026 entre los años más calurosos registrados?
2 57%
1 34%
4 2.8%
Título del grupo: 6 o menos 2.3%
$2,819,595 Vol.
$2,819,595 Vol.
31 dic 2026
1
34%
2
57%
3
2%
4
3%
Título del ítem del grupo: 5
1%
Título del grupo: 6 o menos
2%
2 57%
1 34%
4 2.8%
Título del grupo: 6 o menos 2.3%
$2,819,595 Vol.
$2,819,595 Vol.
31 dic 2026
1
$453,661 Vol.
34%
2
$325,789 Vol.
57%
3
$427,594 Vol.
2%
4
$416,574 Vol.
3%
Título del ítem del grupo: 5
$731,047 Vol.
1%
Título del grupo: 6 o menos
$464,929 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Recent global temperature data place 2024 as the record holder at roughly 1.55°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, with 2025 ranking third at about 1.44°C, driven by the tail end of a strong El Niño and accelerating anthropogenic warming. For 2026, official forecasts from the Met Office and Carbon Brief project a central anomaly near 1.46–1.47°C, positioning the year as most likely second-warmest, though James Hansen’s physics-based analysis assigns a higher probability of a new record if late-year El Niño conditions intensify. Current early-2026 observations show temperatures running slightly cooler than 2024’s peak, yet the long-term forcing trend and expected Pacific warming keep a first-place finish plausible. NOAA’s outlook concurs, estimating a 98 percent chance of a top-five ranking. These factors explain why traders assign the strongest odds to second place while still pricing a meaningful chance for first.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET
Volumen
$2,819,595Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Recent global temperature data place 2024 as the record holder at roughly 1.55°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, with 2025 ranking third at about 1.44°C, driven by the tail end of a strong El Niño and accelerating anthropogenic warming. For 2026, official forecasts from the Met Office and Carbon Brief project a central anomaly near 1.46–1.47°C, positioning the year as most likely second-warmest, though James Hansen’s physics-based analysis assigns a higher probability of a new record if late-year El Niño conditions intensify. Current early-2026 observations show temperatures running slightly cooler than 2024’s peak, yet the long-term forcing trend and expected Pacific warming keep a first-place finish plausible. NOAA’s outlook concurs, estimating a 98 percent chance of a top-five ranking. These factors explain why traders assign the strongest odds to second place while still pricing a meaningful chance for first.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$2,819,595Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent global temperature data place 2024 as the record holder at roughly 1.55°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, with 2025 ranking third at about 1.44°C, driven by the tail end of a strong El Niño and accelerating anthropogenic warming. For 2026, official forecasts from the Met Office and Carbon Brief project a central anomaly near 1.46–1.47°C, positioning the year as most likely second-warmest, though James Hansen’s physics-based analysis assigns a higher probability of a new record if late-year El Niño conditions intensify. Current early-2026 observations show temperatures running slightly cooler than 2024’s peak, yet the long-term forcing trend and expected Pacific warming keep a first-place finish plausible. NOAA’s outlook concurs, estimating a 98 percent chance of a top-five ranking. These factors explain why traders assign the strongest odds to second place while still pricing a meaningful chance for first.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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