With four successful Falcon 9 orbital launches already completed in early May—including Starlink missions, CAS500-2 rideshare, and NROL-172 from Vandenberg Space Force Base—traders price a total of 12 at 43% implied probability, reflecting SpaceX's high-cadence reliability (over 99% success rate historically) and a packed manifest featuring today's NASA CRS-34 resupply from Cape Canaveral, Globalstar 2-R, multiple Starlinks, and Starship's twelfth flight test around May 19-20 from Starbase. The close contest with ≤8 at 37.9% stems from recent CRS-34 delays due to technical checks and potential weather constraints on polar orbits or range safety, alongside Starship's orbital test uncertainties; new booster readiness data and daily manifest updates could tip sentiment toward higher totals.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado12 46%
≤8 39.2%
11 33%
13 32%
≤8
39%
9
15%
10
20%
11
33%
12
46%
13
32%
14 or more
12%
12 46%
≤8 39.2%
11 33%
13 32%
≤8
39%
9
15%
10
20%
11
33%
12
46%
13
32%
14 or more
12%
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Mercado abierto: Apr 27, 2026, 4:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...With four successful Falcon 9 orbital launches already completed in early May—including Starlink missions, CAS500-2 rideshare, and NROL-172 from Vandenberg Space Force Base—traders price a total of 12 at 43% implied probability, reflecting SpaceX's high-cadence reliability (over 99% success rate historically) and a packed manifest featuring today's NASA CRS-34 resupply from Cape Canaveral, Globalstar 2-R, multiple Starlinks, and Starship's twelfth flight test around May 19-20 from Starbase. The close contest with ≤8 at 37.9% stems from recent CRS-34 delays due to technical checks and potential weather constraints on polar orbits or range safety, alongside Starship's orbital test uncertainties; new booster readiness data and daily manifest updates could tip sentiment toward higher totals.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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