NASA’s Artemis program, the primary vehicle for a crewed lunar return, has explicitly deferred the first landing to Artemis IV in 2028 after repeated delays with the Space Launch System rocket, Orion spacecraft integration, and commercial human landing systems from SpaceX and Blue Origin. Artemis II completed a successful crewed lunar flyby in April 2026 without attempting a surface mission, while Artemis III was restructured into a low-Earth-orbit demonstration slated for 2027. With only months remaining in 2026 and no alternative government or commercial programs positioned for an imminent landing, traders assign a 99.2 percent probability to “No.” Plausible swing factors remain narrow, such as an unforeseen acceleration in Starship testing or an undisclosed international effort, though both face steep technical and schedule barriers.