The 99.2% implied probability against a human moon landing in 2026 reflects the Artemis program's repeated timeline slips, driven by unresolved technical hurdles in NASA's Space Launch System rocket, Orion spacecraft, and SpaceX Starship human landing system. As of mid-August 2026, no integrated crewed flight test has occurred, and regulatory reviews plus supply-chain delays continue to push Artemis III beyond year-end. Traders view successful acceleration as unrealistic given historical patterns of multi-year postponements for similar deep-space milestones. While an unforeseen breakthrough in testing or emergency funding could theoretically shift outcomes, such scenarios remain improbable without prior verified milestones.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
<1% probabilidad
$1,967,148 Vol.
$1,967,148 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
<1% probabilidad
$1,967,148 Vol.
$1,967,148 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The 99.2% implied probability against a human moon landing in 2026 reflects the Artemis program's repeated timeline slips, driven by unresolved technical hurdles in NASA's Space Launch System rocket, Orion spacecraft, and SpaceX Starship human landing system. As of mid-August 2026, no integrated crewed flight test has occurred, and regulatory reviews plus supply-chain delays continue to push Artemis III beyond year-end. Traders view successful acceleration as unrealistic given historical patterns of multi-year postponements for similar deep-space milestones. While an unforeseen breakthrough in testing or emergency funding could theoretically shift outcomes, such scenarios remain improbable without prior verified milestones.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volumen
$1,967,148Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The 99.2% implied probability against a human moon landing in 2026 reflects the Artemis program's repeated timeline slips, driven by unresolved technical hurdles in NASA's Space Launch System rocket, Orion spacecraft, and SpaceX Starship human landing system. As of mid-August 2026, no integrated crewed flight test has occurred, and regulatory reviews plus supply-chain delays continue to push Artemis III beyond year-end. Traders view successful acceleration as unrealistic given historical patterns of multi-year postponements for similar deep-space milestones. While an unforeseen breakthrough in testing or emergency funding could theoretically shift outcomes, such scenarios remain improbable without prior verified milestones.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,967,148Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 99.2% implied probability against a human moon landing in 2026 reflects the Artemis program's repeated timeline slips, driven by unresolved technical hurdles in NASA's Space Launch System rocket, Orion spacecraft, and SpaceX Starship human landing system. As of mid-August 2026, no integrated crewed flight test has occurred, and regulatory reviews plus supply-chain delays continue to push Artemis III beyond year-end. Traders view successful acceleration as unrealistic given historical patterns of multi-year postponements for similar deep-space milestones. While an unforeseen breakthrough in testing or emergency funding could theoretically shift outcomes, such scenarios remain improbable without prior verified milestones.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes