Recent May 2026 tornado counts have run near or slightly below the 1991–2020 climatological average of roughly 265, keeping the 200–229 and sub-200 bins tightly matched at 42.5 % and 42.0 %. Early-month outbreaks, including the 6–7 May Southeast event that produced several EF2–EF3 tornadoes, lifted preliminary tallies but were offset by quieter periods afterward. Current steering patterns and modest Gulf moisture have limited widespread discrete supercell development across the traditional Plains corridor. With roughly two weeks remaining, forecasters watch for any late-month jet-stream amplification or increased CAPE that could push totals toward the 260–289 range; model consensus currently favors continued modest activity. Traders therefore assign nearly identical implied probabilities to outcomes just below or just above the long-term mean.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHow many Tornadoes in the US in May?
How many Tornadoes in the US in May?
<200 63%
260–289 39%
230–259 38%
200–229 36%
NUEVO
NUEVO
8 jun 2026
<200
45%
200–229
36%
230–259
38%
260–289
39%
290–319
16%
320–349
29%
350–379
36%
380–410
9%
410+
10%
<200 63%
260–289 39%
230–259 38%
200–229 36%
NUEVO
NUEVO
8 jun 2026
<200
$215 Vol.
45%
200–229
$0 Vol.
36%
230–259
$0 Vol.
38%
260–289
$0 Vol.
39%
290–319
$0 Vol.
16%
320–349
$10 Vol.
29%
350–379
$10 Vol.
36%
380–410
$0 Vol.
9%
410+
$0 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Recent May 2026 tornado counts have run near or slightly below the 1991–2020 climatological average of roughly 265, keeping the 200–229 and sub-200 bins tightly matched at 42.5 % and 42.0 %. Early-month outbreaks, including the 6–7 May Southeast event that produced several EF2–EF3 tornadoes, lifted preliminary tallies but were offset by quieter periods afterward. Current steering patterns and modest Gulf moisture have limited widespread discrete supercell development across the traditional Plains corridor. With roughly two weeks remaining, forecasters watch for any late-month jet-stream amplification or increased CAPE that could push totals toward the 260–289 range; model consensus currently favors continued modest activity. Traders therefore assign nearly identical implied probabilities to outcomes just below or just above the long-term mean.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Mercado abierto: Apr 27, 2026, 4:37 PM ET
Volumen
$235Fecha de finalización
8 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Recent May 2026 tornado counts have run near or slightly below the 1991–2020 climatological average of roughly 265, keeping the 200–229 and sub-200 bins tightly matched at 42.5 % and 42.0 %. Early-month outbreaks, including the 6–7 May Southeast event that produced several EF2–EF3 tornadoes, lifted preliminary tallies but were offset by quieter periods afterward. Current steering patterns and modest Gulf moisture have limited widespread discrete supercell development across the traditional Plains corridor. With roughly two weeks remaining, forecasters watch for any late-month jet-stream amplification or increased CAPE that could push totals toward the 260–289 range; model consensus currently favors continued modest activity. Traders therefore assign nearly identical implied probabilities to outcomes just below or just above the long-term mean.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on June 8, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:01 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volumen
$235Fecha de finalización
8 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 4:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent May 2026 tornado counts have run near or slightly below the 1991–2020 climatological average of roughly 265, keeping the 200–229 and sub-200 bins tightly matched at 42.5 % and 42.0 %. Early-month outbreaks, including the 6–7 May Southeast event that produced several EF2–EF3 tornadoes, lifted preliminary tallies but were offset by quieter periods afterward. Current steering patterns and modest Gulf moisture have limited widespread discrete supercell development across the traditional Plains corridor. With roughly two weeks remaining, forecasters watch for any late-month jet-stream amplification or increased CAPE that could push totals toward the 260–289 range; model consensus currently favors continued modest activity. Traders therefore assign nearly identical implied probabilities to outcomes just below or just above the long-term mean.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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