Seismic data from the United States Geological Survey show that no instrumentally recorded earthquake has reached magnitude 10.0, with the global maximum at 9.5 during the 1960 Chile event. This historical ceiling, paired with the physics of fault rupture and typical recurrence intervals of centuries for great subduction-zone quakes, drives the current 94.8% market-implied probability against such an event before 2027. Ongoing global monitoring networks detect no anomalous strain buildup capable of releasing that level of energy in the near term. While theoretical models allow for rare outliers beyond observed maxima, the absence of precursors and the short time window make a shift in odds unlikely absent major new tectonic evidence.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Terremoto de 10.0 o superior antes de 2027?
¿Terremoto de 10.0 o superior antes de 2027?
Sí
$602,797 Vol.
$602,797 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$602,797 Vol.
$602,797 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Seismic data from the United States Geological Survey show that no instrumentally recorded earthquake has reached magnitude 10.0, with the global maximum at 9.5 during the 1960 Chile event. This historical ceiling, paired with the physics of fault rupture and typical recurrence intervals of centuries for great subduction-zone quakes, drives the current 94.8% market-implied probability against such an event before 2027. Ongoing global monitoring networks detect no anomalous strain buildup capable of releasing that level of energy in the near term. While theoretical models allow for rare outliers beyond observed maxima, the absence of precursors and the short time window make a shift in odds unlikely absent major new tectonic evidence.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercado abierto: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
Volumen
$602,797Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Seismic data from the United States Geological Survey show that no instrumentally recorded earthquake has reached magnitude 10.0, with the global maximum at 9.5 during the 1960 Chile event. This historical ceiling, paired with the physics of fault rupture and typical recurrence intervals of centuries for great subduction-zone quakes, drives the current 94.8% market-implied probability against such an event before 2027. Ongoing global monitoring networks detect no anomalous strain buildup capable of releasing that level of energy in the near term. While theoretical models allow for rare outliers beyond observed maxima, the absence of precursors and the short time window make a shift in odds unlikely absent major new tectonic evidence.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volumen
$602,797Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Seismic data from the United States Geological Survey show that no instrumentally recorded earthquake has reached magnitude 10.0, with the global maximum at 9.5 during the 1960 Chile event. This historical ceiling, paired with the physics of fault rupture and typical recurrence intervals of centuries for great subduction-zone quakes, drives the current 94.8% market-implied probability against such an event before 2027. Ongoing global monitoring networks detect no anomalous strain buildup capable of releasing that level of energy in the near term. While theoretical models allow for rare outliers beyond observed maxima, the absence of precursors and the short time window make a shift in odds unlikely absent major new tectonic evidence.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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