The scarcity of magnitude 9.0+ events underpins the 93.2% market-implied probability of “No” before 2027. USGS historical catalogs document only five instrumentally recorded M9+ earthquakes since 1900, with recurrence intervals for megathrust ruptures typically spanning 25–50 years or longer based on paleoseismic records. The most recent was the 2011 Tōhoku event; recent 2026 activity monitored by the USGS has included several M7–7.7 quakes but no trend toward the multi-segment failure required for a full-margin 9.0 rupture. With only months remaining until December 31, 2026, the brief window reinforces trader consensus. An unforeseen event in a high-strain subduction zone such as Cascadia could still shift odds, though current geophysical data show no precursors indicating imminent escalation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Terremoto de 9.0 o superior antes de 2027?
¿Terremoto de 9.0 o superior antes de 2027?
Sí
7% probabilidad
$273,727 Vol.
$273,727 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
7% probabilidad
$273,727 Vol.
$273,727 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The scarcity of magnitude 9.0+ events underpins the 93.2% market-implied probability of “No” before 2027. USGS historical catalogs document only five instrumentally recorded M9+ earthquakes since 1900, with recurrence intervals for megathrust ruptures typically spanning 25–50 years or longer based on paleoseismic records. The most recent was the 2011 Tōhoku event; recent 2026 activity monitored by the USGS has included several M7–7.7 quakes but no trend toward the multi-segment failure required for a full-margin 9.0 rupture. With only months remaining until December 31, 2026, the brief window reinforces trader consensus. An unforeseen event in a high-strain subduction zone such as Cascadia could still shift odds, though current geophysical data show no precursors indicating imminent escalation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercado abierto: Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Volumen
$273,727Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The scarcity of magnitude 9.0+ events underpins the 93.2% market-implied probability of “No” before 2027. USGS historical catalogs document only five instrumentally recorded M9+ earthquakes since 1900, with recurrence intervals for megathrust ruptures typically spanning 25–50 years or longer based on paleoseismic records. The most recent was the 2011 Tōhoku event; recent 2026 activity monitored by the USGS has included several M7–7.7 quakes but no trend toward the multi-segment failure required for a full-margin 9.0 rupture. With only months remaining until December 31, 2026, the brief window reinforces trader consensus. An unforeseen event in a high-strain subduction zone such as Cascadia could still shift odds, though current geophysical data show no precursors indicating imminent escalation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volumen
$273,727Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The scarcity of magnitude 9.0+ events underpins the 93.2% market-implied probability of “No” before 2027. USGS historical catalogs document only five instrumentally recorded M9+ earthquakes since 1900, with recurrence intervals for megathrust ruptures typically spanning 25–50 years or longer based on paleoseismic records. The most recent was the 2011 Tōhoku event; recent 2026 activity monitored by the USGS has included several M7–7.7 quakes but no trend toward the multi-segment failure required for a full-margin 9.0 rupture. With only months remaining until December 31, 2026, the brief window reinforces trader consensus. An unforeseen event in a high-strain subduction zone such as Cascadia could still shift odds, though current geophysical data show no precursors indicating imminent escalation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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