The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ megathrust events underpins the 94.3% market-implied probability that none will strike before 2027. USGS seismic catalogs show only five such quakes globally since 1900, with recurrence intervals averaging 20–30 years and none recorded since the 2011 Tōhoku event. Recent monitoring through 2026 reveals peak activity limited to an 8.8 in Kamchatka and scattered 7+ events elsewhere, far below the threshold and without detectable precursors such as accelerated strain in major subduction zones like Cascadia or Sumatra. While inherent unpredictability allows for the remote possibility of sudden full-segment rupture, long-term frequency estimates of 1–3 events per century continue to favor the consensus outcome absent any abrupt shift in global seismic patterns.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Terremoto de 9.0 o superior antes de 2027?
¿Terremoto de 9.0 o superior antes de 2027?
Sí
$191,440 Vol.
$191,440 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$191,440 Vol.
$191,440 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ megathrust events underpins the 94.3% market-implied probability that none will strike before 2027. USGS seismic catalogs show only five such quakes globally since 1900, with recurrence intervals averaging 20–30 years and none recorded since the 2011 Tōhoku event. Recent monitoring through 2026 reveals peak activity limited to an 8.8 in Kamchatka and scattered 7+ events elsewhere, far below the threshold and without detectable precursors such as accelerated strain in major subduction zones like Cascadia or Sumatra. While inherent unpredictability allows for the remote possibility of sudden full-segment rupture, long-term frequency estimates of 1–3 events per century continue to favor the consensus outcome absent any abrupt shift in global seismic patterns.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercado abierto: Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Volumen
$191,440Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ megathrust events underpins the 94.3% market-implied probability that none will strike before 2027. USGS seismic catalogs show only five such quakes globally since 1900, with recurrence intervals averaging 20–30 years and none recorded since the 2011 Tōhoku event. Recent monitoring through 2026 reveals peak activity limited to an 8.8 in Kamchatka and scattered 7+ events elsewhere, far below the threshold and without detectable precursors such as accelerated strain in major subduction zones like Cascadia or Sumatra. While inherent unpredictability allows for the remote possibility of sudden full-segment rupture, long-term frequency estimates of 1–3 events per century continue to favor the consensus outcome absent any abrupt shift in global seismic patterns.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volumen
$191,440Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ megathrust events underpins the 94.3% market-implied probability that none will strike before 2027. USGS seismic catalogs show only five such quakes globally since 1900, with recurrence intervals averaging 20–30 years and none recorded since the 2011 Tōhoku event. Recent monitoring through 2026 reveals peak activity limited to an 8.8 in Kamchatka and scattered 7+ events elsewhere, far below the threshold and without detectable precursors such as accelerated strain in major subduction zones like Cascadia or Sumatra. While inherent unpredictability allows for the remote possibility of sudden full-segment rupture, long-term frequency estimates of 1–3 events per century continue to favor the consensus outcome absent any abrupt shift in global seismic patterns.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes