Above-average early-season activity is the main driver behind the market's strong preference for a 2026 U.S. tornado total exceeding 1,250. Through mid-May, the Storm Prediction Center has confirmed roughly 560 tornadoes, well ahead of the long-term pace, fueled by repeated outbreaks including a major March event and an unusually active April that produced over 300 reports. This pace aligns with recent trends of elevated spring severe weather, driven by favorable atmospheric patterns such as strong low-level moisture and wind shear. With the climatological peak still ahead in May and June, and historical analogs showing that active starts often translate to above-average annual totals, traders see limited downside risk for the highest bin. Ongoing SPC outlooks and monthly verification reports will provide the next key updates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos tornados hay en Estados Unidos en 2026?
¿Cuántos tornados hay en Estados Unidos en 2026?
1250+ 80%
1200–1249 19.4%
1150–1199 5.6%
<950 4.8%
$71,989 Vol.
$71,989 Vol.
10 ene 2027
<950
5%
950–999
3%
1000–1049
1%
1050–1099
5%
1100–1149
3%
1150–1199
6%
1200–1249
19%
1250+
80%
1250+ 80%
1200–1249 19.4%
1150–1199 5.6%
<950 4.8%
$71,989 Vol.
$71,989 Vol.
10 ene 2027
<950
$22,427 Vol.
5%
950–999
$2,966 Vol.
3%
1000–1049
$2,424 Vol.
1%
1050–1099
$7,841 Vol.
5%
1100–1149
$2,041 Vol.
3%
1150–1199
$2,452 Vol.
6%
1200–1249
$15,173 Vol.
19%
1250+
$16,666 Vol.
80%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Above-average early-season activity is the main driver behind the market's strong preference for a 2026 U.S. tornado total exceeding 1,250. Through mid-May, the Storm Prediction Center has confirmed roughly 560 tornadoes, well ahead of the long-term pace, fueled by repeated outbreaks including a major March event and an unusually active April that produced over 300 reports. This pace aligns with recent trends of elevated spring severe weather, driven by favorable atmospheric patterns such as strong low-level moisture and wind shear. With the climatological peak still ahead in May and June, and historical analogs showing that active starts often translate to above-average annual totals, traders see limited downside risk for the highest bin. Ongoing SPC outlooks and monthly verification reports will provide the next key updates.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Mercado abierto: Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
Volumen
$71,989Fecha de finalización
10 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Above-average early-season activity is the main driver behind the market's strong preference for a 2026 U.S. tornado total exceeding 1,250. Through mid-May, the Storm Prediction Center has confirmed roughly 560 tornadoes, well ahead of the long-term pace, fueled by repeated outbreaks including a major March event and an unusually active April that produced over 300 reports. This pace aligns with recent trends of elevated spring severe weather, driven by favorable atmospheric patterns such as strong low-level moisture and wind shear. With the climatological peak still ahead in May and June, and historical analogs showing that active starts often translate to above-average annual totals, traders see limited downside risk for the highest bin. Ongoing SPC outlooks and monthly verification reports will provide the next key updates.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volumen
$71,989Fecha de finalización
10 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Above-average early-season activity is the main driver behind the market's strong preference for a 2026 U.S. tornado total exceeding 1,250. Through mid-May, the Storm Prediction Center has confirmed roughly 560 tornadoes, well ahead of the long-term pace, fueled by repeated outbreaks including a major March event and an unusually active April that produced over 300 reports. This pace aligns with recent trends of elevated spring severe weather, driven by favorable atmospheric patterns such as strong low-level moisture and wind shear. With the climatological peak still ahead in May and June, and historical analogs showing that active starts often translate to above-average annual totals, traders see limited downside risk for the highest bin. Ongoing SPC outlooks and monthly verification reports will provide the next key updates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes