Current USGS seismic catalogs confirm five magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide through mid-May 2026, all clustered along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones. This early pace aligns with the long-term global average of roughly 15–16 such events per year, implying a market-implied trajectory toward seven to eight total by June 30. Poisson-distributed seismicity produces wide variance, so traders assign an 81% implied probability to eight or more, viewing the recent three-week lull since the April 20 Japan event as temporary rather than indicative of quiescence. No elevated precursors appear in real-time monitoring, but ongoing catalog revisions and potential aftershock sequences could shift counts before the June 30 resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos terremotos de 7.0 o más para el 30 de junio?
¿Cuántos terremotos de 7.0 o más para el 30 de junio?
$1,852,681 Vol.
$1,852,681 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Título del grupo: 7
19%
8+
81%
$1,852,681 Vol.
$1,852,681 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Título del grupo: 7
$288,176 Vol.
19%
8+
$550,920 Vol.
81%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Current USGS seismic catalogs confirm five magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide through mid-May 2026, all clustered along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones. This early pace aligns with the long-term global average of roughly 15–16 such events per year, implying a market-implied trajectory toward seven to eight total by June 30. Poisson-distributed seismicity produces wide variance, so traders assign an 81% implied probability to eight or more, viewing the recent three-week lull since the April 20 Japan event as temporary rather than indicative of quiescence. No elevated precursors appear in real-time monitoring, but ongoing catalog revisions and potential aftershock sequences could shift counts before the June 30 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 4, 2025, 3:15 PM ET
Volumen
$1,852,681Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Current USGS seismic catalogs confirm five magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide through mid-May 2026, all clustered along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones. This early pace aligns with the long-term global average of roughly 15–16 such events per year, implying a market-implied trajectory toward seven to eight total by June 30. Poisson-distributed seismicity produces wide variance, so traders assign an 81% implied probability to eight or more, viewing the recent three-week lull since the April 20 Japan event as temporary rather than indicative of quiescence. No elevated precursors appear in real-time monitoring, but ongoing catalog revisions and potential aftershock sequences could shift counts before the June 30 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volumen
$1,852,681Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Current USGS seismic catalogs confirm five magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide through mid-May 2026, all clustered along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones. This early pace aligns with the long-term global average of roughly 15–16 such events per year, implying a market-implied trajectory toward seven to eight total by June 30. Poisson-distributed seismicity produces wide variance, so traders assign an 81% implied probability to eight or more, viewing the recent three-week lull since the April 20 Japan event as temporary rather than indicative of quiescence. No elevated precursors appear in real-time monitoring, but ongoing catalog revisions and potential aftershock sequences could shift counts before the June 30 resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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