A small, contained cluster of Andes virus infections on the MV Hondius cruise ship in April–May 2026 produced roughly a dozen cases and three deaths but generated no sustained community transmission. Andes virus is the only hantavirus capable of limited person-to-person spread, yet this requires prolonged close contact rather than casual or airborne routes typical of pandemic pathogens. CDC, WHO, and European health authorities reported zero linked U.S. or widespread cases by mid-May and assessed general-population risk as very low, consistent with the virus’s rodent-reservoir ecology and historical pattern of sporadic hantavirus pulmonary syndrome outbreaks. With 2026 now more than halfway complete and no evidence of exponential growth or new clusters, traders assign a 96.3 % probability to “no pandemic.” A realistic shift would require undetected superspreading events or emergence of a more transmissible variant, neither of which has materialized under current surveillance.