Recent Met Office data shows the UK's mean temperature for meteorological summer 2026 through 10 August already at 16.48°C, well ahead of the 2025 record pace of 16.1°C, requiring only near-average conditions for the rest of August to secure a new seasonal high. Multiple intense heatwaves, including peaks near 38°C in June and sustained overnight warmth, have driven exceptional daytime maxima alongside the first recorded instances of 35°C+ temperatures in May, June, and July. These conditions align with broader warming trends elevating extreme heat frequency, sustaining strong trader consensus around an 85.5% implied probability for a new record. Updated forecasts and final Met Office seasonal verification in early September will determine resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Será el verano de 2026 el verano más caluroso registrado en el Reino Unido?
¿Será el verano de 2026 el verano más caluroso registrado en el Reino Unido?
86% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 oct 2026
86% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 oct 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Recent Met Office data shows the UK's mean temperature for meteorological summer 2026 through 10 August already at 16.48°C, well ahead of the 2025 record pace of 16.1°C, requiring only near-average conditions for the rest of August to secure a new seasonal high. Multiple intense heatwaves, including peaks near 38°C in June and sustained overnight warmth, have driven exceptional daytime maxima alongside the first recorded instances of 35°C+ temperatures in May, June, and July. These conditions align with broader warming trends elevating extreme heat frequency, sustaining strong trader consensus around an 85.5% implied probability for a new record. Updated forecasts and final Met Office seasonal verification in early September will determine resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Aug 11, 2026, 10:59 AM ET
Volumen
$331Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 11, 2026, 10:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Recent Met Office data shows the UK's mean temperature for meteorological summer 2026 through 10 August already at 16.48°C, well ahead of the 2025 record pace of 16.1°C, requiring only near-average conditions for the rest of August to secure a new seasonal high. Multiple intense heatwaves, including peaks near 38°C in June and sustained overnight warmth, have driven exceptional daytime maxima alongside the first recorded instances of 35°C+ temperatures in May, June, and July. These conditions align with broader warming trends elevating extreme heat frequency, sustaining strong trader consensus around an 85.5% implied probability for a new record. Updated forecasts and final Met Office seasonal verification in early September will determine resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$331Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 11, 2026, 10:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Met Office data shows the UK's mean temperature for meteorological summer 2026 through 10 August already at 16.48°C, well ahead of the 2025 record pace of 16.1°C, requiring only near-average conditions for the rest of August to secure a new seasonal high. Multiple intense heatwaves, including peaks near 38°C in June and sustained overnight warmth, have driven exceptional daytime maxima alongside the first recorded instances of 35°C+ temperatures in May, June, and July. These conditions align with broader warming trends elevating extreme heat frequency, sustaining strong trader consensus around an 85.5% implied probability for a new record. Updated forecasts and final Met Office seasonal verification in early September will determine resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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