Favorable environmental conditions are positioning Tropical Storm Saudel for rapid intensification over the next 48–72 hours, driving trader consensus toward a very strong typhoon peak. The system, currently a tropical storm with 35–40 knot winds near 13°N 150°E, is tracking northwest under a steering ridge while entering an area of elevated sea surface temperatures, low vertical wind shear, and strong upper-level divergence that supports explosive deepening. Official and ensemble guidance, including JMA, HAFS-A, and COAMPS-TC, projects sustained winds reaching 90–130 knots by August 23 near the Ogasawara Islands, consistent with “very strong” or higher JMA thresholds. Recent model runs have trended more aggressive, reflecting the storm’s compact structure and uninterrupted poleward outflow channel, though steering shifts after 36 hours and any increase in shear could limit the upper end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Qué tan fuerte será la tormenta tropical Saudel?
¿Qué tan fuerte será la tormenta tropical Saudel?
Tifón Muy Fuerte 55%
Tifón 21%
Tifón Violento 16%
Tormenta Tropical Severa 6%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 ago 2026
Tormenta Tropical
5%
Tormenta Tropical Severa
6%
Tifón
27%
Tifón Muy Fuerte
55%
Tifón Violento
16%
Tifón Muy Fuerte 55%
Tifón 21%
Tifón Violento 16%
Tormenta Tropical Severa 6%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 ago 2026
Tormenta Tropical
$20 Vol.
5%
Tormenta Tropical Severa
$19 Vol.
6%
Tifón
$37 Vol.
27%
Tifón Muy Fuerte
$35 Vol.
55%
Tifón Violento
$44 Vol.
16%
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Favorable environmental conditions are positioning Tropical Storm Saudel for rapid intensification over the next 48–72 hours, driving trader consensus toward a very strong typhoon peak. The system, currently a tropical storm with 35–40 knot winds near 13°N 150°E, is tracking northwest under a steering ridge while entering an area of elevated sea surface temperatures, low vertical wind shear, and strong upper-level divergence that supports explosive deepening. Official and ensemble guidance, including JMA, HAFS-A, and COAMPS-TC, projects sustained winds reaching 90–130 knots by August 23 near the Ogasawara Islands, consistent with “very strong” or higher JMA thresholds. Recent model runs have trended more aggressive, reflecting the storm’s compact structure and uninterrupted poleward outflow channel, though steering shifts after 36 hours and any increase in shear could limit the upper end.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ET
Volumen
$154Fecha de finalización
1 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=enResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Favorable environmental conditions are positioning Tropical Storm Saudel for rapid intensification over the next 48–72 hours, driving trader consensus toward a very strong typhoon peak. The system, currently a tropical storm with 35–40 knot winds near 13°N 150°E, is tracking northwest under a steering ridge while entering an area of elevated sea surface temperatures, low vertical wind shear, and strong upper-level divergence that supports explosive deepening. Official and ensemble guidance, including JMA, HAFS-A, and COAMPS-TC, projects sustained winds reaching 90–130 knots by August 23 near the Ogasawara Islands, consistent with “very strong” or higher JMA thresholds. Recent model runs have trended more aggressive, reflecting the storm’s compact structure and uninterrupted poleward outflow channel, though steering shifts after 36 hours and any increase in shear could limit the upper end.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Volumen
$154Fecha de finalización
1 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=enResolver
0x69c47De9D...Favorable environmental conditions are positioning Tropical Storm Saudel for rapid intensification over the next 48–72 hours, driving trader consensus toward a very strong typhoon peak. The system, currently a tropical storm with 35–40 knot winds near 13°N 150°E, is tracking northwest under a steering ridge while entering an area of elevated sea surface temperatures, low vertical wind shear, and strong upper-level divergence that supports explosive deepening. Official and ensemble guidance, including JMA, HAFS-A, and COAMPS-TC, projects sustained winds reaching 90–130 knots by August 23 near the Ogasawara Islands, consistent with “very strong” or higher JMA thresholds. Recent model runs have trended more aggressive, reflecting the storm’s compact structure and uninterrupted poleward outflow channel, though steering shifts after 36 hours and any increase in shear could limit the upper end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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