Recent confirmation of New York City's first 2026 human West Nile virus case on August 19, alongside over 1,000 positive mosquito pools detected since mid-June across all boroughs, anchors trader sentiment near the recent five-year average of 31 neuroinvasive cases. Elevated Culex mosquito activity driven by temperature and moisture conditions, plus national trends showing 156 neuroinvasive cases by mid-August, support the close implied probabilities for fewer than 20 versus 20–34 outcomes. Robust NYC surveillance and expanded larviciding since June introduce uncertainty around final counts, while peak transmission typically occurs through September. Historical shifts from 16 annual cases (2012–2021) to higher recent levels reflect changing environmental factors that could push totals toward or below the 20–34 band depending on late-season weather and control efficacy.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos casos de enfermedad neuroinvasiva del Nilo Occidental se notificarán entre los residentes de la ciudad de Nueva York en 2026?
¿Cuántos casos de enfermedad neuroinvasiva del Nilo Occidental se notificarán entre los residentes de la ciudad de Nueva York en 2026?
Menos de 20 43%
35 a 49 40%
50 o más 29%
20 a 34 0
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 mar 2027
Menos de 20
43%
20 a 34
42%
35 a 49
30%
50 o más
29%
Menos de 20 43%
35 a 49 40%
50 o más 29%
20 a 34 0
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 mar 2027
Menos de 20
$4 Vol.
43%
20 a 34
$4 Vol.
42%
35 a 49
$145 Vol.
30%
50 o más
$181 Vol.
29%
This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.Recent confirmation of New York City's first 2026 human West Nile virus case on August 19, alongside over 1,000 positive mosquito pools detected since mid-June across all boroughs, anchors trader sentiment near the recent five-year average of 31 neuroinvasive cases. Elevated Culex mosquito activity driven by temperature and moisture conditions, plus national trends showing 156 neuroinvasive cases by mid-August, support the close implied probabilities for fewer than 20 versus 20–34 outcomes. Robust NYC surveillance and expanded larviciding since June introduce uncertainty around final counts, while peak transmission typically occurs through September. Historical shifts from 16 annual cases (2012–2021) to higher recent levels reflect changing environmental factors that could push totals toward or below the 20–34 band depending on late-season weather and control efficacy.
This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Mercado abierto: Aug 20, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volumen
$335Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2027Mercado abierto
Aug 20, 2026, 5:18 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.pageResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.Recent confirmation of New York City's first 2026 human West Nile virus case on August 19, alongside over 1,000 positive mosquito pools detected since mid-June across all boroughs, anchors trader sentiment near the recent five-year average of 31 neuroinvasive cases. Elevated Culex mosquito activity driven by temperature and moisture conditions, plus national trends showing 156 neuroinvasive cases by mid-August, support the close implied probabilities for fewer than 20 versus 20–34 outcomes. Robust NYC surveillance and expanded larviciding since June introduce uncertainty around final counts, while peak transmission typically occurs through September. Historical shifts from 16 annual cases (2012–2021) to higher recent levels reflect changing environmental factors that could push totals toward or below the 20–34 band depending on late-season weather and control efficacy.
This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Volumen
$335Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2027Mercado abierto
Aug 20, 2026, 5:18 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.pageResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent confirmation of New York City's first 2026 human West Nile virus case on August 19, alongside over 1,000 positive mosquito pools detected since mid-June across all boroughs, anchors trader sentiment near the recent five-year average of 31 neuroinvasive cases. Elevated Culex mosquito activity driven by temperature and moisture conditions, plus national trends showing 156 neuroinvasive cases by mid-August, support the close implied probabilities for fewer than 20 versus 20–34 outcomes. Robust NYC surveillance and expanded larviciding since June introduce uncertainty around final counts, while peak transmission typically occurs through September. Historical shifts from 16 annual cases (2012–2021) to higher recent levels reflect changing environmental factors that could push totals toward or below the 20–34 band depending on late-season weather and control efficacy.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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