Tropical Storm Dolly formed briefly in the eastern Atlantic on August 27-28, 2026, with peak sustained winds near 40 mph before rapidly weakening into an open tropical wave under strong southwesterly wind shear and dry air entrainment. National Hurricane Center analyses and model guidance showed the system losing its closed circulation within 24 hours, with forecast positions already post-tropical by August 29-30 and expected dissipation near the Leeward Islands. Sea-surface temperatures remain adequate, yet persistent shear exceeding 20-30 knots and fast westward motion at 20-25 mph have suppressed organization. The 98.3% market-implied probability of no hurricane intensification reflects this consensus, with NHC development odds at near 0% through 48 hours and only 10% over seven days. A realistic but low-probability shift would require the remnants to encounter sharply reduced shear and sustained moisture while crossing the western Atlantic or Gulf, conditions not currently indicated by ensemble guidance.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La tormenta tropical Dolly se convertirá en un huracán?
¿La tormenta tropical Dolly se convertirá en un huracán?
Sí
2% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 sep 2026
Sí
2% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 sep 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".Tropical Storm Dolly formed briefly in the eastern Atlantic on August 27-28, 2026, with peak sustained winds near 40 mph before rapidly weakening into an open tropical wave under strong southwesterly wind shear and dry air entrainment. National Hurricane Center analyses and model guidance showed the system losing its closed circulation within 24 hours, with forecast positions already post-tropical by August 29-30 and expected dissipation near the Leeward Islands. Sea-surface temperatures remain adequate, yet persistent shear exceeding 20-30 knots and fast westward motion at 20-25 mph have suppressed organization. The 98.3% market-implied probability of no hurricane intensification reflects this consensus, with NHC development odds at near 0% through 48 hours and only 10% over seven days. A realistic but low-probability shift would require the remnants to encounter sharply reduced shear and sustained moisture while crossing the western Atlantic or Gulf, conditions not currently indicated by ensemble guidance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Mercado abierto: Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ET
Volumen
$725Fecha de finalización
4 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".Tropical Storm Dolly formed briefly in the eastern Atlantic on August 27-28, 2026, with peak sustained winds near 40 mph before rapidly weakening into an open tropical wave under strong southwesterly wind shear and dry air entrainment. National Hurricane Center analyses and model guidance showed the system losing its closed circulation within 24 hours, with forecast positions already post-tropical by August 29-30 and expected dissipation near the Leeward Islands. Sea-surface temperatures remain adequate, yet persistent shear exceeding 20-30 knots and fast westward motion at 20-25 mph have suppressed organization. The 98.3% market-implied probability of no hurricane intensification reflects this consensus, with NHC development odds at near 0% through 48 hours and only 10% over seven days. A realistic but low-probability shift would require the remnants to encounter sharply reduced shear and sustained moisture while crossing the western Atlantic or Gulf, conditions not currently indicated by ensemble guidance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Volumen
$725Fecha de finalización
4 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Tropical Storm Dolly formed briefly in the eastern Atlantic on August 27-28, 2026, with peak sustained winds near 40 mph before rapidly weakening into an open tropical wave under strong southwesterly wind shear and dry air entrainment. National Hurricane Center analyses and model guidance showed the system losing its closed circulation within 24 hours, with forecast positions already post-tropical by August 29-30 and expected dissipation near the Leeward Islands. Sea-surface temperatures remain adequate, yet persistent shear exceeding 20-30 knots and fast westward motion at 20-25 mph have suppressed organization. The 98.3% market-implied probability of no hurricane intensification reflects this consensus, with NHC development odds at near 0% through 48 hours and only 10% over seven days. A realistic but low-probability shift would require the remnants to encounter sharply reduced shear and sustained moisture while crossing the western Atlantic or Gulf, conditions not currently indicated by ensemble guidance.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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