Tropical Storm Karina, currently at 60–70 kt sustained winds over the eastern Pacific well southwest of Baja California, faces highly favorable conditions for rapid strengthening, including sea surface temperatures near 29°C, low vertical wind shear, and a moist mid-level environment. National Hurricane Center forecasts explicitly project the system reaching hurricane intensity later tonight or within the next day, with most dynamical and statistical guidance, including SHIPS and ensemble models, supporting a peak near or above major hurricane strength early next week before encountering cooler waters and drier air. This near-term intensification path underpins the 99.5% market-implied probability for reaching hurricane status. Residual uncertainty stems mainly from potential delays in inner-core organization or unexpected shear increases, though current observations and model consensus make such outcomes unlikely before the threshold is crossed.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La tormenta tropical Karina se convertirá en un huracán?
¿La tormenta tropical Karina se convertirá en un huracán?
Sí
99% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
5 sep 2026
Sí
99% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
5 sep 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Karina reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Karina reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Karina is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Karina does not reach hurricane strength by September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".Tropical Storm Karina, currently at 60–70 kt sustained winds over the eastern Pacific well southwest of Baja California, faces highly favorable conditions for rapid strengthening, including sea surface temperatures near 29°C, low vertical wind shear, and a moist mid-level environment. National Hurricane Center forecasts explicitly project the system reaching hurricane intensity later tonight or within the next day, with most dynamical and statistical guidance, including SHIPS and ensemble models, supporting a peak near or above major hurricane strength early next week before encountering cooler waters and drier air. This near-term intensification path underpins the 99.5% market-implied probability for reaching hurricane status. Residual uncertainty stems mainly from potential delays in inner-core organization or unexpected shear increases, though current observations and model consensus make such outcomes unlikely before the threshold is crossed.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Karina reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Karina reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Karina is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Karina does not reach hurricane strength by September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Karina reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Karina is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Karina does not reach hurricane strength by September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Mercado abierto: Aug 27, 2026, 5:19 PM ET
Volumen
$4,797Fecha de finalización
6 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 27, 2026, 5:19 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Karina reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Karina reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Karina is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Karina does not reach hurricane strength by September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".Tropical Storm Karina, currently at 60–70 kt sustained winds over the eastern Pacific well southwest of Baja California, faces highly favorable conditions for rapid strengthening, including sea surface temperatures near 29°C, low vertical wind shear, and a moist mid-level environment. National Hurricane Center forecasts explicitly project the system reaching hurricane intensity later tonight or within the next day, with most dynamical and statistical guidance, including SHIPS and ensemble models, supporting a peak near or above major hurricane strength early next week before encountering cooler waters and drier air. This near-term intensification path underpins the 99.5% market-implied probability for reaching hurricane status. Residual uncertainty stems mainly from potential delays in inner-core organization or unexpected shear increases, though current observations and model consensus make such outcomes unlikely before the threshold is crossed.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Karina reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Karina reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Karina is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Karina does not reach hurricane strength by September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Karina reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Karina is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Karina does not reach hurricane strength by September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Volumen
$4,797Fecha de finalización
6 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 27, 2026, 5:19 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Tropical Storm Karina, currently at 60–70 kt sustained winds over the eastern Pacific well southwest of Baja California, faces highly favorable conditions for rapid strengthening, including sea surface temperatures near 29°C, low vertical wind shear, and a moist mid-level environment. National Hurricane Center forecasts explicitly project the system reaching hurricane intensity later tonight or within the next day, with most dynamical and statistical guidance, including SHIPS and ensemble models, supporting a peak near or above major hurricane strength early next week before encountering cooler waters and drier air. This near-term intensification path underpins the 99.5% market-implied probability for reaching hurricane status. Residual uncertainty stems mainly from potential delays in inner-core organization or unexpected shear increases, though current observations and model consensus make such outcomes unlikely before the threshold is crossed.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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