NHC forecasts show Tropical Storm Lowell, currently at 40 kt with a sheared structure, poised for strengthening as easterly wind shear diminishes over the next 12-24 hours. Dynamical models align on favorable conditions afterward, including warmer sea-surface temperatures and reduced dry-air intrusion, projecting winds to reach 65 kt within 48 hours and hurricane intensity by Monday or Monday night. This underpins the 92% market-implied odds, reflecting trader confidence in the consensus guidance envelope. However, interaction with nearby Tropical Storm Karina could introduce greater shear if Lowell slows or tracks closer, potentially limiting intensification below the 64-kt threshold.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La tormenta tropical Lowell se convertirá en un huracán?
¿La tormenta tropical Lowell se convertirá en un huracán?
Sí
92% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
8 sep 2026
Sí
92% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
8 sep 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Lowell reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Lowell reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Lowell is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Lowell does not reach hurricane strength by September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".NHC forecasts show Tropical Storm Lowell, currently at 40 kt with a sheared structure, poised for strengthening as easterly wind shear diminishes over the next 12-24 hours. Dynamical models align on favorable conditions afterward, including warmer sea-surface temperatures and reduced dry-air intrusion, projecting winds to reach 65 kt within 48 hours and hurricane intensity by Monday or Monday night. This underpins the 92% market-implied odds, reflecting trader confidence in the consensus guidance envelope. However, interaction with nearby Tropical Storm Karina could introduce greater shear if Lowell slows or tracks closer, potentially limiting intensification below the 64-kt threshold.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Lowell reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Lowell reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Lowell is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Lowell does not reach hurricane strength by September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Lowell reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Lowell is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Lowell does not reach hurricane strength by September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Mercado abierto: Aug 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volumen
$2,489Fecha de finalización
9 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Lowell reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Lowell reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Lowell is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Lowell does not reach hurricane strength by September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".NHC forecasts show Tropical Storm Lowell, currently at 40 kt with a sheared structure, poised for strengthening as easterly wind shear diminishes over the next 12-24 hours. Dynamical models align on favorable conditions afterward, including warmer sea-surface temperatures and reduced dry-air intrusion, projecting winds to reach 65 kt within 48 hours and hurricane intensity by Monday or Monday night. This underpins the 92% market-implied odds, reflecting trader confidence in the consensus guidance envelope. However, interaction with nearby Tropical Storm Karina could introduce greater shear if Lowell slows or tracks closer, potentially limiting intensification below the 64-kt threshold.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Lowell reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Lowell reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Lowell is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Lowell does not reach hurricane strength by September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Lowell reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Lowell is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Lowell does not reach hurricane strength by September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Volumen
$2,489Fecha de finalización
9 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...NHC forecasts show Tropical Storm Lowell, currently at 40 kt with a sheared structure, poised for strengthening as easterly wind shear diminishes over the next 12-24 hours. Dynamical models align on favorable conditions afterward, including warmer sea-surface temperatures and reduced dry-air intrusion, projecting winds to reach 65 kt within 48 hours and hurricane intensity by Monday or Monday night. This underpins the 92% market-implied odds, reflecting trader confidence in the consensus guidance envelope. However, interaction with nearby Tropical Storm Karina could introduce greater shear if Lowell slows or tracks closer, potentially limiting intensification below the 64-kt threshold.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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