Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 83% implied probability for a major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons TNT equivalent in 2026, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) confirming no such bolides year-to-date despite a Q1 surge in smaller fireballs—peaking with a 0.25 kt Ohio event on March 17. This uptick, 3.9 standard deviations above norms per American Meteor Society data, stems from enhanced detection via global sensor networks and possible asteroidal debris streams, but all remained sub-kiloton yields. Advanced planetary defense tracking, including recent safe close approaches like 2026 EG1, underscores low undetected threat risk, with no Sentry-listed impacts for the year; remaining catalysts include meteor showers through December.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Golpe de meteorito mayor (10kt+) en 2026?
¿Golpe de meteorito mayor (10kt+) en 2026?
Sí
$153,356 Vol.
$153,356 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$153,356 Vol.
$153,356 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 83% implied probability for a major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons TNT equivalent in 2026, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) confirming no such bolides year-to-date despite a Q1 surge in smaller fireballs—peaking with a 0.25 kt Ohio event on March 17. This uptick, 3.9 standard deviations above norms per American Meteor Society data, stems from enhanced detection via global sensor networks and possible asteroidal debris streams, but all remained sub-kiloton yields. Advanced planetary defense tracking, including recent safe close approaches like 2026 EG1, underscores low undetected threat risk, with no Sentry-listed impacts for the year; remaining catalysts include meteor showers through December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercado abierto: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Volumen
$153,356Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 83% implied probability for a major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons TNT equivalent in 2026, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) confirming no such bolides year-to-date despite a Q1 surge in smaller fireballs—peaking with a 0.25 kt Ohio event on March 17. This uptick, 3.9 standard deviations above norms per American Meteor Society data, stems from enhanced detection via global sensor networks and possible asteroidal debris streams, but all remained sub-kiloton yields. Advanced planetary defense tracking, including recent safe close approaches like 2026 EG1, underscores low undetected threat risk, with no Sentry-listed impacts for the year; remaining catalysts include meteor showers through December.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volumen
$153,356Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 83% implied probability for a major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons TNT equivalent in 2026, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) confirming no such bolides year-to-date despite a Q1 surge in smaller fireballs—peaking with a 0.25 kt Ohio event on March 17. This uptick, 3.9 standard deviations above norms per American Meteor Society data, stems from enhanced detection via global sensor networks and possible asteroidal debris streams, but all remained sub-kiloton yields. Advanced planetary defense tracking, including recent safe close approaches like 2026 EG1, underscores low undetected threat risk, with no Sentry-listed impacts for the year; remaining catalysts include meteor showers through December.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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