The near-certain 96% trader consensus on “No” stems from the Atlantic hurricane season’s official start date of June 1, combined with persistently quiet conditions across the basin in mid-May 2026. Sea-surface temperatures remain below the threshold needed for rapid tropical cyclone development in the main genesis regions, while wind shear and atmospheric stability suppress organization. Historical records show only a handful of May hurricanes since 1851, none of which produced U.S. landfall before June. National Hurricane Center outlooks through the end of the month continue to indicate negligible risk, though an unusually early disturbance could still form if steering currents and upper-level support align unexpectedly in the final two weeks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Un huracán tocará tierra en los Estados Unidos antes del 31 de mayo?
¿Un huracán tocará tierra en los Estados Unidos antes del 31 de mayo?
Sí
$25,825 Vol.
$25,825 Vol.
31 may 2026
Sí
$25,825 Vol.
$25,825 Vol.
31 may 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.The near-certain 96% trader consensus on “No” stems from the Atlantic hurricane season’s official start date of June 1, combined with persistently quiet conditions across the basin in mid-May 2026. Sea-surface temperatures remain below the threshold needed for rapid tropical cyclone development in the main genesis regions, while wind shear and atmospheric stability suppress organization. Historical records show only a handful of May hurricanes since 1851, none of which produced U.S. landfall before June. National Hurricane Center outlooks through the end of the month continue to indicate negligible risk, though an unusually early disturbance could still form if steering currents and upper-level support align unexpectedly in the final two weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
Mercado abierto: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
Volumen
$25,825Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.The near-certain 96% trader consensus on “No” stems from the Atlantic hurricane season’s official start date of June 1, combined with persistently quiet conditions across the basin in mid-May 2026. Sea-surface temperatures remain below the threshold needed for rapid tropical cyclone development in the main genesis regions, while wind shear and atmospheric stability suppress organization. Historical records show only a handful of May hurricanes since 1851, none of which produced U.S. landfall before June. National Hurricane Center outlooks through the end of the month continue to indicate negligible risk, though an unusually early disturbance could still form if steering currents and upper-level support align unexpectedly in the final two weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
Volumen
$25,825Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The near-certain 96% trader consensus on “No” stems from the Atlantic hurricane season’s official start date of June 1, combined with persistently quiet conditions across the basin in mid-May 2026. Sea-surface temperatures remain below the threshold needed for rapid tropical cyclone development in the main genesis regions, while wind shear and atmospheric stability suppress organization. Historical records show only a handful of May hurricanes since 1851, none of which produced U.S. landfall before June. National Hurricane Center outlooks through the end of the month continue to indicate negligible risk, though an unusually early disturbance could still form if steering currents and upper-level support align unexpectedly in the final two weeks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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