No new SARS-CoV-2 lineage has demonstrated the sustained global human-to-human transmission and case growth needed to trigger a WHO pandemic declaration in 2026, supporting the 94.5% market-implied probability of “No.” CDC and WHO genomic surveillance through May shows continued circulation of variants such as BA.3.2 (“Cicada”), NB.1.8.1 (“Nimbus”), and XFG (“Stratus”), yet these Omicron descendants exhibit only moderate immune evasion without rapid dominance or elevated hospitalization rates relative to prior seasons. Widespread population immunity from vaccination and prior infection, combined with established surveillance networks, continues to constrain exponential spread. A realistic challenge would require an unforeseen zoonotic spillover or compensatory mutations restoring high ACE2 binding and transmissibility, developments that ongoing wastewater and traveler-based monitoring have not yet detected.